基于ARIMA模型的全球气表温度预测分析  

Global Air Surface Temperature Prediction Analysis Based on ARIMA Model

作　　者：吴会会 王嘉鹏 吴文静 赵宏程 章培军[1] WU Huihui;WANG Jiapeng;WU Wenjing;ZHAO Hongcheng;ZHANG Peijun(School of Computer Science,Xijing University,Xi'an 710123,China)

机构地区：[1]西京学院计算机学院,陕西西安710123

出　　处：《现代信息科技》2023年第16期147-150,共4页Modern Information Technology

基　　金：西京学院科研基金资助项目(XJ210104);西京学院横向课题(2021610002010769,2022610002011135);西京学院精品课程《高等数学A2》建设(XJJPKC22007);陕西省教育科学“十四五”规划2021年度一般课题(SGH21Y0286);陕西省“大学生创新创业训练计划”项目(X202212715028)。

摘　　要：现如今,由于人们在日常的生产以及生活中对化石燃料越来越依赖,温室气体的排放量逐年增多,以致全球变暖的速度也越来越快。为了减少气候变化对人们产生的影响,文章对1918—2022年的全球气温数据进行了平稳化检验和白噪声检验,建立了一个ARMA(1,3)模型,并利用该模型预测了未来5年全球气表温度改变量,结合实验结果,分析了气候改变给人们带来的影响,最后给予了应对全球气候变暖的建议。Nowadays,due to people's daily production and life more and more dependence on fossil fuels,greenhouse gas emissions are increasing year by year,so that the speed of global warming is getting faster and faster.In order to reduce the impact of climate change on people,this paper conducts a stabilization test and white noise test on the global temperature data in the five years from 1918 to 2022,establishes an ARMA(1,3)model,and uses the model to predict the global air surface temperature change in the next 5 years.Combined with experimental results,this paper analyzes the impact of climate change on people,and gives suggestions to deal with global warming finally.

关 键 词：ARIMA模型 气表温度 预测 

分 类 号：TP399[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]