成渝地区人口均衡发展的水平测度、耦合协调与时空演变  

The Level Measurement,Coupling Coordination and Spatial-temporal Evolution of Population Balanced Development in Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle

作　　者：赵智[1] 余川江[2] 阳盼盼 ZHAO Zhi;YU Chuan-jiang;YANG Pan-pan(Department of Economics and Management,Party School of Chongqing Committee of C.P.C,Chongqing 400041,China;School of Economics,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China)

机构地区：[1]中共重庆市委党校经济管理教研部,重庆400041 [2]四川大学经济学院,成都610065

出　　处：《西北人口》2023年第4期102-115,共14页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金西部项目“成渝地区双城经济圈人口长期均衡发展的实现路径研究”(项目编号:21XRK001)。

摘　　要：当下区域人口发展面临的失衡风险之大、影响程度之深前所未有,长此以往将对民族复兴和国家永续发展构成严重威胁。把握人口发展趋势和规律,实现人口长期均衡发展,已然成为破解少子老龄化、城乡统筹、区域协调瓶颈的战略选择。于是,依据2000年、2010年、2020年成渝地区16个城市单元的数据,运用熵值法和层次分析法实证分析了区域人口长期均衡发展的综合水平,并基于耦合协调度模型考察了人口均衡发展内外系统的耦合协调状况。结果表明:第一,成渝地区人口内外系统的耦合发展状况尚可,但均衡发展综合水平、内外系统协调性相对欠佳;第二,时序变化上,综合水平、耦合协调度由低到高,整体趋势向好;第三,空间格局上存在一定的地区异质性,“双核独大”“节点崛起”与“中部塌陷”并存;第四,内部系统发展滞后逐渐成为制约区域人口均衡发展的主因。这意味着,要想真正实现区域人口均衡发展,一方面要从夯实内部根基入手,推动生育友好型社会建设,还要着力提升劳动力质量,协调好城城、城乡之间的关系,以动态保持人口总量的势能优势,持续释放质量型人口红利,不断优化人口分布格局;另一方面,要尽力解除外部系统束缚,包括大力发展幼托服务、提升城市发展层次、集约利用自然资源以及重视保护生态环境;同时,应加强人口均衡发展的学理研究,因地制宜处理好数量与质量、结构与民生、城市与乡村、眼下与长远等几个辩证关系,以期动态实现人口均衡发展内外系统的相互匹配、同步共进。At present,the imbalance risk and influence degree of regional population development are unprecedented,which will pose a serious threat to national rejuvenation and national sustainable development in the long run.Grasping the trend and law of population development and realizing the long-term balanced development of population has become a strategic choice to solve the bottleneck of low birth rate aging,urban-rural integration and regional coordination.Therefore,this paper uses the data of 16 regions in Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle in 2000,2010 and 2020,uses entropy method and analytic hierarchy pro⁃cess to empirically analyze the comprehensive level of long-term balanced development of regional population,and examines the coupling and coordination of internal and external systems of balanced development of population based on the coupling coordina⁃tion degree model.The balanced development of population is the key to solve the bottleneck of low birth rate aging,urban-rural integration and regional coordination.Based on the municipal data of 16 Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle in 2000,2010 and 2020,this paper empirically analyzes the comprehensive level and coupling coordination of long-term balanced development of regional population.The results show that:First,the coupling development of the internal and external systems of the population in Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle is acceptable,but the comprehensive level of balanced development and the coordina⁃tion of internal and external systems are relatively poor.Second,in terms of time series changes,the comprehensive level and cou⁃pling coordination degree are from low to high,and the overall trend is good.Third,there is a certain regional heterogeneity in the spatial pattern,“dual-core dominance”“node rise”and“central collapse”coexist;fourth,the lag of internal system development has gradually become the main reason restricting the balanced development of regional population.This means that in order to tru⁃ly realize the balance

关 键 词：人口均衡 外部约束 耦合协调 时空变异 成渝地区 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F127[经济管理—世界经济]