清远市O_(3)-8h的广义可加模型构建及应用研究  

Construction and Application of Generalized Additive Model of O_(3)-8h in Qingyuan City

作　　者：林书乐 刘莹 LIN Shu-le;LIU Ying(Department of Environmental Monitoring,Guangdong Polytechnic of Environmental Protection Engineering,Foshan,Guangdong 528216,China)

机构地区：[1]广东环境保护工程职业学院环境监测学院,广东佛山528216

出　　处：《四川环境》2023年第4期61-73,共13页Sichuan Environment

基　　金：2020年度广东省普通高校青年创新人才项目(2020KQNCX181)。

摘　　要：为分析清远市臭氧浓度的主要影响因素,选取清远市2020年6~9月份逐小时O_(3)和SO_(2)、PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、CO、NO_(2)连续监测数据以及气象观测数据,对O_(3)-8h(臭氧的日最大连续8个小时平均浓度的算术平均值)变化特征进行分析。利用广义可加模型(GAM),结合调整判定系数、方差解释率、模型偏导数等分析清远市气象要素和排污活动对臭氧浓度的贡献。结果表明:采用平均风速、平均气温、NO_(2)平均值、PM_(10)平均值、O_(3)平均值、CO平均值等六个因子能解释84.44%的O_(3)-8h变化。综合考虑污染物的源与汇及其关键时间段,清远市2020年6~9月O_(3)-8h主要影响因素是日间尤其是上午的气象条件以及以NO_(2)和PM_(10)为特征污染物的燃烧源尤其是移动源的排污活动。根据敏感度分析结果,低风速、高NO_(2)浓度、强太阳辐射、高温、高PM_(10)浓度容易造成O_(3)-8h显著升高。研究成果可为确定清远市臭氧污染成因和臭氧污染防控方案提供参考。In order to analyze the main influencing factors of ozone concentration in Qingyuan City,the hourly monitoring data of O_(3),SO_(2),PM_(2.5),PM_(10),CO_(2)NO_(2) and meteorological observation data of Qingyuan City from June to September in 2020 were selected to analyze the variation characteristics of O_(3)-8h(the arithmetic mean value of the daily maximum continuous 8-hour average concentration of ozone).The contribution of meteorological factors and pollutant discharge activities to ozone concentration in Qingyuan City was analyzed by using generalized additive model(GAM)combined with adjusted coefficients of determination,interpretation ratio of variance and model partial derivative.The results showed that 84.44%of the O_(3)-8h variation can be explainedby six factors:the average wind speed,average temperature,average NO_(2),average PM_(10),average O_(2)and average CO.Considering the sources and sinks of pollutants and their key time periods,the main influencing factors of O-8h in Qingyuan City from June to September 2020 were the meteorological conditions in the daytime,especially in the morning,and the pollutant(NO_(2)and PM_(2.5))discharge activities of combustion sources,especially mobile sources.According to the sensitivity analysis results,low wind speed,high NO_(2) concentration,strong solar radiation,high temperature and high PM_(10) concentration are easy to cause a significant increase in O_(3)-8h.This study can provide a reference for determining the cause of ozone pollution as well as the prevention and control plan of ozone pollution in Qingyuan City.

关 键 词：广义可加模型 臭氧浓度 气象分析 污染源分析 

分 类 号：X131.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]