连江流域年最大洪水峰量变化特征分析  

Variation Characteristics of Annual Maximum Flood Peak and Volume in Lianjiang Basin

作　　者：曾志平 郑炎辉 ZENG Zhiping;ZHENG Yanhui(Qingyuan Hydrology Sub-bureau of Guangdong Province,Qingyuan 511500,China;Southern University of Science and Technology,Shenzhen 518055,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省水文局清远水文分局,广东清远511500 [2]南方科技大学,广东深圳518055

出　　处：《广东水利水电》2023年第8期24-30,共7页Guangdong Water Resources and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:52209025)。

摘　　要：连江洪水频发,分析其洪水峰量演变规律,可为流域防洪减灾提供参考。采用线性回归、M-K趋势检验、启发式分割算法和Morlet小波变换等方法,系统分析连江控制站高道站洪水峰量极值的趋势性、突变性和周期性。结果表明:①连江流域年最大洪水主要发生在4—6月份,占比80%左右;②年最大洪峰流量和年最大1D洪量在1993年发生了均值向上跳跃突变,年最大洪峰流量均值较突变前增大了1234 m^(3)/s,向上跳跃了33.8%;年最大1D洪量均值较突变前增加了1.002亿m^(3),向上跳跃了35.3%,发生突变可能是由流域极端降雨增强、堤围修建加固等变化引起;③年最大洪峰流量以18.7 m^(3)/(s•a)的趋势显著上升,年最大1D洪量以0.0146亿m^(3)/a的趋势显著上升,其整体上升趋势是均值突变性跳跃上升的影响结果;④洪水峰量极值指标在大尺度上存在14~15 a、15~16 a、15~18 a、16~18 a的周期,在中尺度上存在5~7 a、6~8 a、7~8 a、8~10 a的周期,在小尺度上存在2~3 a、3~4 a的周期。Lianjiang River offen floods.Analysis of the evolution law of flood peak and volume can provide reference for flood control and disaster reduction in the Lianjiang River Basin.Linear regression,M-K trend test,heuristic segmentation algorithm,Morlet wavelet transform are used to systematically analyze the trend,mutation and periodicity of the extreme flood peak and volume at Gaodao Hydrological Station in Lianjiang River basin.The results show that:①The annual maximum flood in Lianjiang River Basin mainly occurs in April to June,accounting for about 80%;②In 1993,the annual maximum peak discharge and the annual maximum 1d flood volume jumped sharply upward.The mean value of the annual maximum peak discharge increased by 1234m^(3)/s compared with that before the change point,and jumped upward by 33.8%;The average annual maximum 1D flood volume increased by 100.2 million cubic meters compared with that before the change point,with an upward jump of 35.3%;The sudden change may be caused by the increase of extreme rainfall in the basin and the construction and reinforcement of embankments.③The annual maximum peak discharge increased significantly with the trend of 18.7m^(3)/(s•a),and the annual maximum 1d flood volume increased significantly with the trend of 14.6 million m^(3)/a.The overall rising trend is the result of the sudden jump of the mean value;④The flood peak and volume extreme value has 14~15a,15~16a,15~18a,16~18a cycles on a large scale,5~7a,6~8a,7~8a,8~10a cycles on a mesoscale,and 2~3a,3~4a cycles on a small scale.

关 键 词：洪水峰量极值 趋势分析 突变分析 周期分析 连江流域 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]