中美欧生猪产业和猪肉市场波动应对措施及效果的比较研究  

Comparative Study on the Effects of China,America and Europe's Countermeasures of Regulation on the Fluctuation of Hog Industry and Pork Market

作　　者：朱增勇 张海峰 ZHU Zengyong;ZHANG Haifeng

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院北京畜牧兽医研究所 [2]湛江科技学院生猪产业研究所

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2023年第2期23-27,共5页Price:Theory & Practice

摘　　要：新冠疫情冲击全球猪肉供应链,导致全球猪价持续上涨,各国采取相应措施稳定产业和市场。本文分析疫情对中国、美国和欧盟生猪产业和猪肉市场的中短期影响,研究猪肉市场价格波动特征及差异化的原因,比较应对措施对生猪产业和猪肉市场的稳定效果。研究表明:在新冠疫情暴发初期,防疫措施限制了居民出行范围,抑制了消费需求,导致中国和欧盟猪价下跌,美国则由于供应链受冲击而导致猪肉价格波动剧烈。在疫情快速扩张的2021-2022年,中国猪肉产量连续两年实现增长,储备肉政策等调控措施的综合运用促进了猪价回归到常态水平,为物价稳定做出显著贡献。2022年受到疫情叠加俄乌冲突影响,全球生猪生产成本上涨,再加上生猪产能下降以及消费复苏等因素,欧盟和美国猪肉价格出现阶段性快速上涨,并处于历史高位,而中国则保障猪肉市场供应充足且价格稳定。基于上述分析研究,本文就我国生猪生产和猪肉市场保供稳价提出建议:持续改善生猪疫病监测系统和防控方案,做好政府储备肉市场调控,优化生猪产能调控机制,推动规模养殖转型升级,提高生猪产业竞争力。The CovID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the global pork supply chain,causing a rise in hog prices worldwide.This paper analyzes the short-term and medium-term effects of the pandemic on the hog industry and pork market in China,the United States,and the European Union.It studies the characteristics of price fluctuations in the pork market and the reasons for differences,and compares the effects of countermeasures on the stability of the hog industry and the pork market.The research shows that at the beginning of the CovID-19 outbreak,the epidemic prevention measures restricted the travel range of residents,curbed consumer demand,and led to the decline of hog prices in China and the European Union,while the impact on the supply chain in the United States led to sharp fluctuations in pork prices.The research shows that at the beginning of the CovID-19 outbreak,the epidemic prevention measures restricted the travel range of residents,curbed consumer demand,and led to the decline of hog prices in China and the European Union,while the impact on the supply chain in the United States led to sharp fluctuations in pork prices.In 2022,affected by the epidemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict,the global cost of hog production will rise.In addition to factors such as the decline of hog production capacity and the recovery of consumption,the pork price in the EU and the United States will rise rapidly in stages and be at a historical high,while China will ensure adequate supply and stable price in the pork market.Based on the above analysis,this paper puts forward suggestions on China's hog production and pork market to ensure supply and stable price:continue to improve the pig epidemic disease monitoring system and prevention and control program,do a good job in regulating the government reserve Vleeshal,optimize the pig production capacity regulation mechanism,promote the transformation and upgrading of large-scale breeding,and improve the competitiveness of the hog industry.

关 键 词：新冠疫情 猪肉市场 猪肉价格 储备肉 

分 类 号：F313.7[经济管理—产业经济] F316.3