中巴经济走廊巴基斯坦段产水服务供需风险评价及分区  

Risk Assessment and Zoning on Supply and Demand of Water Yield Services in Pakistan Section of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

作　　者：钟孟君 蒋贵国[1] 陆忆文 程珍旎 董威威 Zhong Mengjun;Jiang Guiguo;Lu Yiwen;Cheng Zhenni;Dong Weiwei(Key Laboratory of Land Resources Evaluation and Monitoring in Southwest,Ministry of Education,School of Geography and Resources Science,Sichuan Normal University,Chengdu,Sichuan 610000,China)

机构地区：[1]四川师范大学地理与资源科学学院,西南土地资源评价与监测教育部重点实验室,四川成都610000

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2023年第3期225-233,共9页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：教育部规划基金项目“基于充分均衡发展视角下的彝汉交错深度贫困区生态稳定脱贫机制研究”(18XJA630005)。

摘　　要：[目的]研究中巴经济走廊巴基斯坦段产水服务供需状况,科学识别产水服务供需风险区并制定合理的风险防范措施,为中巴经济走廊实现绿色发展提供重要依据。[方法]以中巴经济走廊巴基斯坦段为研究区,基于2000,2005,2010,2015,2020年遥感影像数据和社会经济数据,采用InVEST模型和以人定需法估算产水服务供给量与需求量,结合供需指数及趋势评估产水服务供需风险并进行风险划区。[结果]①2000—2020年总产水量呈先增后减的趋势,产水服务供给能力中部高南北低;20 a来产水需求总量增幅达58.44%。②2000—2020产水服务供需指数变化趋势较弱,整体稳定。严重赤字区主要分布于印度河平原与俾路支省西部,高度盈余区集中分布于吉尔吉特—巴尔蒂斯坦与俾路支省东部。③产水服务供需高风险区面积占22.69%,其供需匹配类型以低供给低需求为主(47.57%)。[结论]动态评估中巴经济走廊巴基斯坦段产水量,制定区域水资源保护措施,构建生态补偿机制,使产水服务供需达到平衡,有助于促进中巴经济走廊的绿色发展。[Objective]The supply and demand of water yield services in the Pakistan section of China-Pakistan economic corridor were analyzed,the risk areas for water yield services were identified scientifically,and the risk prevention measures were formulated reasonably in order to provide an important basis for the green development of the China-Pakistan economic corridor.[Methods]Based on remote sensing image data and socio-economic data for 2000,2005,2010,2015,and 2020 from the research area(the Pakistan section of the China-Pakistan economic corridor),the InVEST model and the human-demand method were used to estimate the supply and demand of water yield services.The supply and demand index and trends were used to assess the supply and demand risks of water yield services and to delineate risk areas.[Results]①Total water yield from 2000 to 2020 initially increased and then decreased.The water yield service supply capacity was high in the center of the study area and low in the north and south.The total demand for water yield increased by 58.44%over the past 20 years.②From 2000 to 2020,the supply and demand index of water yield services had a weak trend and was generally stable.Severe deficit areas were mainly located in the Indus Plain and Western Balochistan,and high surplus areas were concentrated in Gilgit-Baltistan and Eastern Balochistan.③The high-risk areas accounted for 22.69%of the national area,and the type of supply and demand match was mainly low supply and low demand(47.57%).[Conclusion]Dynamically assessing water yield in the China-Pakistan economic corridor(Pakistan section),formulating regional water resource protection measures,and constructing an ecological compensation mechanism to balance the supply and demand of water yield services are conducive to promoting the green development of the China-Pakistan economic corridor.

关 键 词：产水服务 供给与需求 供需风险 InVEST模型 中巴经济走廊 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学] K903[历史地理—人文地理学]