中国水资源税制体系政策效应模拟——基于动态CGE模型的分析  

Simulation study on the policy effect of China’s water resource tax system:an analysis based on the dynamic CGE model

作　　者：信春华[1] 郭凤琪 XIN Chunhua;GUO Fengqi(School of Management,China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing),Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2023年第8期166-179,共14页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：北京市自然科学基金项目“京津冀流域生态补偿多元主体网络型协同体系及福利效应研究”(批准号:9222026)。

摘　　要：水资源税制体系改革是中国绿色经济转型过程中的重要举措,建立政策分析框架准确测度税收效应是决定税制进一步改革方向的重要依据。基于现行水资源税制体系,从政府和市场角度分析税制政策在经济系统中的传导机制,依据2018年投入产出表编制水资源社会核算矩阵,考虑农业补贴及水体自净能力,通过动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型系统分析水资源税、水污染税、技术进步等不同政策情景组合将会对经济运行、社会福利、水资源保护和污染减排产生的短期和长期效应。结果表明:①水资源税制体系可提高社会福利,抑制高污染高耗水行业扩张,支持产业优化升级,虽然在短期内会对经济发展产生一定抑制作用,但在长期效应中可通过政府调控带动经济增长。②水资源税与水污染税不但可以协同促进水资源节约与水污染物减排,还能减轻单独实施各项税收对经济的负向冲击。③技术进步在减少税收对经济的负向冲击、提高水资源利用效率和水污染物处理率方面发挥关键作用。④高税负情景下节水减排的环境效应明显优于低税负情景,对经济增长和社会福利的冲击也与低税负情景无显著差异。因此,在全面推进水资源税制体系改革过程中,应充分发挥政府调控作用,统筹税款用于水源保护及水环境治理,加大对农业及高污染高耗水行业投资,支持其改进为更有效的用水方式及污水处理技术,结合水资源税和水污染税对经济和环境的不同效果,强化两税的协同设计,立足于地区经济发展目标和水资源治理需求合理确定税负水平,充分利用政策组合优势制定策略。The reform of the water resource tax system is an important measure in the process of China’s green economic transformation.Therefore,establishing a policy analysis framework to accurately measure the effect of taxation is an important basis for deciding the direction of further improvements of the tax system.Based on the current water resource tax system,we analyzed the transmission mechanism of tax policies in the economic system from the perspectives of the government and the market.A Social Accounting Matrix of water resources was constructed according to the input-output table of 2018,taking into account agricultural subsidies and water selfpurification capacity.A dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE)model was used to systematically analyze the short-term and long-term impacts of different policy scenarios such as the water resource tax,the water pollution tax,and technological progress on economic performance,social welfare,water conservation,and pollution reduction.The results showed that:①Although the water resource tax system had a certain restraining effect on economic development in the short term,it could drive economic growth through government regulation,improve social welfare,and support industrial optimization and upgrading by inhibiting the expansion of high-pollution and high-water consumption industries in the long term.②The water resource tax and the water pollution tax could not only synergistically promote water conservation and water pollutant emission reduction,but also reduce the negative impact of individual taxes on the economy.③Technological progress played a key role in reducing the negative impact of taxes on the economy and improving the efficiency of water resource utilization and the treatment rate of water pollutants.④The environmental effects of water conservation and emission reduction under the high tax scenarios were significantly better than those under the low tax scenarios,and the impact on economic growth and social welfare was not significantly different

关 键 词：水资源税制体系 经济运行 社会福利 环境效应 长期效应 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]