基于支持向量机模型的河南省乡镇卫生院医疗卫生服务需求变化趋势及预测研究  

Study on the Trend and Prediction of Health Service Demands of Township Health Centers in Henan Province Based on Support Vector Machine Model

作　　者：徐学琴[1] 马晓梅[1] 韩雪[1] 孙春阳[1] 全善爱 闫国立[1] XU Xueqin;MA Xiaomei;HAN Xue;SUN Chunyang;QUAN Shanai;YAN Guoli(Medicine College of Henan University of Chinese Medicine,Zhengzhou,450046,China)

机构地区：[1]河南中医药大学医学院公共卫生与预防医学教研中心,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《中国社会医学杂志》2023年第4期475-479,共5页Chinese Journal of Social Medicine

基　　金：河南省高等学校重点科研计划项目(21A330003)。

摘　　要：目的对河南省乡镇卫生院医疗卫生服务需求的变化趋势进行分析及预测,为河南省相关部门制定卫生规划、合理调整乡镇卫生院医疗卫生资源配置提供参考依据。方法选取诊疗人次数、入院人数两项指标对2010-2019年河南省乡镇卫生院医疗卫生服务需求的变化趋势进行分析。以2010-2018年的历史数据作为训练样本、2019年数据作为检验样本,采用支持向量机模型分别建立诊疗人次数和入院人数的预测模型,并对2020-2024年河南省乡镇卫生院医疗卫生服务需求量进行预测。结果2010-2019年的10年中,河南省乡镇卫生院年均诊疗人次数为0.95亿次,10年累计增长了78.46%,年平均增长率为6.65%;年均入院人数为307.17万人,10年累计降低了0.23%,年平均增长率为-0.03%。模型预测结果显示,2020-2024年平均诊疗人次数增至1.08亿次;2020-2024年平均入院人数降至251.52万人。结论2010-2019年间河南省乡镇卫生院的诊疗人次数总体呈上升趋势,而入院人数总体呈现为负增长。2020-2024年河南省乡镇居民在门、急诊卫生服务需求方面将持续处于较高水平,在入院需求方面将低于前期水平。河南省相关部门应根据乡镇卫生院医疗卫生服务需求的变化宏观调控医疗卫生资源,并注重乡镇卫生院内部资源结构的调整。Objective To analyze and predict the changing trend of health service demands of township health centers in Henan province,so as to provide reference for making health plans and adjusting the allocation of health resources.Methods The change of health service demands was analyzed based on the visits and inpatients number of township health centers in Henan province from 2010 to 2019.The historical data from 2010 to 2018 were the trai-ning samples and the data of 2019 was the test sample.Support vector machine model was used to establish the prediction model and predict the health service demands from 2020 to 2024.Results From 2010 to 2019,the annual averag e number of visits was 95 million,the number of visits increased 78.46%overall,and the average growth rate was 6.65%.The annual average number of inpatients was 3.0717 million,the number of inpatients decreased 0.23%overall,and the average growth rate was-0.03%.According to the prediction,the annually average visit number from 2020 to 2024 would increase to 108 million;the annually average inpatient number would decrease to 2.5152 million.Conclusion From 2010 to 2019,the number of visits showed an upward trend,while the number of inpatients showed a negative growth.From 2020 to 2024,the demand for outpatient and emergency health services of township residents in Henan province will continue to be at a higher level,and the demand for inpatients will be lo-wer than the previous level.Relevant departments should macro-control health resources according to the changes of health service demands of township health centers,and adjust the internal resource of township health centers.

关 键 词：卫生服务需求 支持向量机 乡镇卫生院 预测 

分 类 号：R197.62[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]