2009-2018年桂林市生态足迹动态变化与驱动力分析  

Dynamic Changes and Driving Forces Analysis of Ecological Footprint in Guilin,China,from 2009 to 2018

作　　者：李倩[1,2,3] 马姜明[1,2,3] LI Qian;MA Jiangming(Key Laboratory of Ecology of Rare and Endangered Species and Environmental Protection(Guangxi Normal University),Ministry of Education,Guilin Guangxi 541006,China;Guangxi Key Laboratory of Landscape Resources Conservation and Sustainable Utilization in Lijiang River Basin(Guangxi Normal University),Guilin Guangxi 541006,China;Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovation,Guangxi Normal University,Guilin Guangxi 541006,China)

机构地区：[1]珍稀濒危动植物生态与环境保护教育部重点实验室(广西师范大学),广西桂林541006 [2]广西漓江流域景观资源保育与可持续利用重点实验室(广西师范大学),广西桂林541006 [3]广西师范大学可持续发展创新研究院,广西桂林541006

出　　处：《广西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第4期178-188,共11页Journal of Guangxi Normal University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：广西重点研发计划项目(桂科AB21220057);广西创新驱动发展专项课题(桂科AA20161002-1);广西师范大学珠江-西江经济带发展研究院研究生创新项目(ZX2020078)。

摘　　要：桂林市是国家可持续发展议程创新示范区,厘清其生态足迹演变特征及驱动机制,能有效促进桂林市可持续发展。本文基于三维生态足迹模型,分析2009—2018年桂林市生态足迹动态变化,并运用偏最小二乘法揭示影响生态足迹动态变化的因素。研究结果表明:1)2009—2018年桂林市人均生态承载力较稳定。人均生态足迹先增大后减小,2015年达到峰值1.859 hm 2/人;人均生态赤字先增大后减小,生态系统因资源过度消耗出现超负荷运行。2)2009—2018年桂林市人均生态足迹广度基本保持不变,人均生态足迹深度先增大后减小,2015年达最大值,研究期间人均生态足迹深度均大于1。3)存量流量利用比与生态压力指数均呈先增大后减小趋势,存量流量利用比在2014年出现峰值,生态压力指数在2017年达到峰值。4)城市规模对生态足迹起显著逆向驱动作用。经济发展和社会消费对生态足迹起正向驱动作用,第二产业增加值影响显著,地区生产总值、第一产业增加值和城镇居民人均可支配收入对生态足迹产生重要影响。Guilin City is an innovative demonstration area of the National Sustainable Development Agenda.Clarifying the evolution characteristics and driving mechanism of its ecological footprint can effectively promote the sustainable development of Guilin City.Based on the three-dimensional ecological footprint model,this paper analyzes the dynamic changes of Guilin’s ecological footprint from 2009 to 2018,and uses the partial least squares method to reveal the factors that affect the dynamic changes of ecological footprint.The research results showed that:1)The per capita ecological carrying capacity of Guilin was relatively stable from 2009 to 2018.The per capita ecological footprint first increased and then decreased,reaching a peak of 1.859 hm 2/person in 2015.The per capita ecological deficit first increases and then decreases,and the ecosystem is overloaded due to excessive resource consumption.2)From 2009 to 2018,the per capita footprint of Guilin remained basically unchanged.The per capita footprint depth first increased and then decreased,reaching the maximum value in 2015.During the study period,the per capita footprint depth was greater than 1.3)The stock-to-flow utilization ratio and the ecological pressure index both increased first and then decreased.The stock-to-flow utilization ratio was at a peak in 2014,and the ecological stress index peaked in 2017.4)City scale has a significant negative driving effect on the ecological footprint.Economic development and social consumption have a positive driving effect on the ecological footprint,the added value of the secondary industry has a significant impact,and the regional GDP,the added value of the primary industry and the per capita disposable income of urban residents have an important impact on the ecological footprint.

关 键 词：三维生态足迹 偏最小二乘法 可持续发展 驱动机制 桂林市 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]