光伏发电功率超短期预测方法综述  

Review of Ultra-short-term Forecasting Methods for Photovoltaic Power Generation

作　　者：董存 王铮 白捷予 蒋建东[3] 王勃 刘冠华 DONG Cun;WANG Zheng;BAI Jieyu;JIANG Jiandong;WANG Bo;LIU Guanhua(State Key Laboratory of Operation and Control of Renewable Energy&Storage Systems,China Electric Power Research Institute,Beijing 100192,China;National Electric Power Dispatching and Control Center,Beijing 100031,China;College of Electrical Engineering,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Pingdingshan Power Supply Company,State Grid Henan Electric Power Company,Pingdingshan 467000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国电力科学研究院有限公司新能源与储能运行控制国家重点实验室,北京100192 [2]国家电力调度控制中心,北京100031 [3]郑州大学电气工程学院,郑州450001 [4]国网河南省电力公司平顶山供电公司,平顶山467000

出　　处：《高电压技术》2023年第7期2938-2951,共14页High Voltage Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委员会−国家电网公司智能电网联合基金(U1966601)。

摘　　要：大规模的光伏并网使电网安全问题日益突出,精准的功率预测能为电网安全稳定运行提供可靠的数据支撑。目前,国内外对光伏发电功率超短期预测开展了大量研究,但在其预测精度上还有待进一步的提升。为此,从影响因素、研究方法、预测难点及未来的发展趋势4方面对光伏发电功率超短期预测方法展开综述。首先对光伏发电的影响因素及预测方法进行归纳总结,然后在深入分析基于历史功率数据的预测法、考虑未来气象因素数据的预测法、基于云观测数据预测法以及多种数据组合的预测法的基础上,梳理出目前光伏功率超短期预测所存在的技术难点,最后结合其发展趋势,展望了未来技术研究的攻关方向。Large-scale photovoltaic grid-connection makes the security of power grid increasingly prominent.Accurate power prediction can provide reliable data support for the stable operation of power grid.At present,a lot of research has been carried out on the ultra-short-term prediction of PV at home and abroad,whereas its prediction accuracy needs to be further improved.Therefore,the paper summarizes the four aspects such as influencing factors,research methods,prediction difficulties,and future development trend.Firstly,the influencing factors and forecasting methods of photovoltaic power generation are summarized.Then,on the basis of in-depth analysis of historical power data prediction method,data prediction method considering future meteorological factors,cloud observation data prediction method and a variety of data combination prediction method,the existing technical difficulties are sorted out.Finally,the prospects in future research directions of technology are put forward.

关 键 词：光伏发电 超短期 功率预测 历史数据预测法 气象因素预测法 云图预测法 

分 类 号：TM615[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]