基于复杂网络的水上交通风险辨识及事故演化机理研究  

Study on risk identification and accident evolution mechanism of maritime traffic accidents based on complex network

作　　者：万程鹏[1,2] 刘翼飞 吴兵 余庆[4] WAN Chengpeng;LIU Yifei;WU Bing;YU Qing(ITS Research Center,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430063,China;Inland Port and Shipping Industry Research Co.,Ltd.of Guangdong Province,Shaoguan Guangdong 512000,China;School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430063,China;School of Navigation,Jimei University,Xiamen Fujian 361021,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学智能交通系统研究中心,湖北武汉430063 [2]广东省内河港航产业研究有限公司,广东韶关512000 [3]武汉理工大学交通与物流工程学院,湖北武汉430063 [4]集美大学航海学院,福建厦门361021

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2023年第8期165-171,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFE0115000);国家自然科学基金项目(51920105014);韶关市引进创新创业团队项目(201208176230693)。

摘　　要：为探索水上交通事故风险演化机理,基于水上交通事故调查报告,采用“2-4模型”提取事故致因链,结合复杂网络分析理论构建水上交通事故风险演化网络模型。从事故潜伏、扩散、发生阶段辨识水上交通事故关键致因因素,并开展案例研究。研究结果表明:船舶碰撞为该辖区主要水上交通事故类型,碰撞事故的关键致因因素包括船员操作不当、应急处置不当等;碰撞事故在风险演化网络中具有传递路径短、随机性强的特征,且风险因素间相互依赖关系紧密。研究结果可为海事监管部门精准管控水上交通安全风险提供理论依据。In order to explore the risk evolution mechanism of maritime traffic accidents,based on the investigation report of maritime traffic accidents,the“2-4 model”was used to extract the accident cause chain,and a risk evolution network model of maritime traffic accidents was constructed by combining with the complex network analysis theory.The key causes of maritime traffic accidents were identified from the latent,diffusion and occurrence stages of accidents,and the case study was carried out.The results show that the ship collision is the main type of maritime traffic accidents in the jurisdiction,and the key cause factors of collision accidents include the improper operation of crew,improper emergency disposal,etc.The collision accidents have the characteristics of short transmission path and strong randomness in the risk evolution network,and the risk factors are closely interdependent.The research results can provide a theoretical basis for the maritime regulatory authorities to accurately control the risk of maritime traffic safety.

关 键 词：安全工程 风险演化 复杂网络 水上交通事故 事故致因 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]