直肠癌术后局部复发的多因素分析及预测模型构建  

Multivariate analysis of local recurrence after rectal cancer surgery and construction of prediction model

作　　者：刘胜海[1] 武四化 李宏祥 周飞 Liu Shenghai;Wu Sihua;Li Hongxiang;Zhou Fei(Department of Abdominal Oncology,Fuyang Cancer Hospital,Fuyang 236000,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]阜阳市肿瘤医院腹部肿瘤外科,安徽阜阳236000

出　　处：《现代科学仪器》2023年第4期143-147,共5页Modern Scientific Instruments

摘　　要：目的:分析直肠癌术后局部复发的相关影响因素并构建风险预测模型。方法:将97例直肠癌术后局部复发患者纳入局部复发组,291例无局部复发患者作为对照组,Logistic回归分析直肠癌术局部复发的影响因素因并构建风险预测模型,分析该模型的预测效能。结果:身体质量指数(BMI)、肿瘤大小、分化程度、肿瘤T分期、区域淋巴结N分期、肿瘤M分期、环周切缘及术后辅助化疗均是直肠癌术后局部复发的影响因素(P<0.05);风险预测模型预测直肠癌术后局部复发的敏感度、特异度分别为87.6%、96.2%。结论:直肠癌术后局部复发的影响因素繁多,基于影响因素构建的风险预测模型具较高的特异度,敏感度也尚可。Objective:To analyze the relevant influencing factors of local recurrence after rectal cancer surgery,and construct a risk prediction model.Methods:Ninety-seven patients withlocal recurrence afterrectal cancer surgery were selected as the local recurrence group and 291 patientswithout local recurrencewere selected as the control group.Logistic regression analysis was performed to screen the influencing factors of local recurrence after rectal cancer surgery,and a risk prediction model was constructed.The predictive efficiency of this model was analyzed.Results:Body mass index(BMI),tumor size,differentiation degree,T staging of tumor,N staging of regional lymph node,M staging of tumor,circumferential margin and postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy were influencing factors of local recurrence after rectal cancer surgery(P<0.05).The sensitivity and specificity of the risk prediction model constructed were 87.6%and 96.2%,respectively.Conclusion:There are many factors influencing local recurrence after rectal cancer surgery.The risk prediction modelconstructed based on influencing factors for local recurrence of rectal cancer after surgery has high specificity and good sensitivity.

关 键 词：直肠癌 局部复发 预测模型 

分 类 号：R735.37[医药卫生—肿瘤]