农业信用担保贷款与农户家庭收入:抑制抑或促进  

Agricultural Credit Guaranteed Loan and Farmer Household Income:Restrict or Promote?

作　　者：胡杰 罗剑朝[1] HU Jie;LUO Jianchao

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,杨凌712100

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2023年第7期73-87,共15页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“农业信用担保制度有效性评价、风险控制与体系构建研究”(编号:71873100);西北农林科技大学基本科研业务费人文社科重大培育项目“农村金融深化、产业融合与乡村振兴战略研究”(编号:2452019155);陕西省农业协同创新与推广联盟2020年重大科技项目“新时代陕西省农业农村现代化重大现实问题与政策问题研究”(编号:LMZD202006)。

摘　　要：本文从理论和数理视角阐述了农业信用担保贷款对农户家庭收入的作用机理,基于陕西和宁夏两地农户调研数据,以OLS和Probit模型为参考,通过Logit模型分析农户参与农业信用担保贷款的诱因,利用PSM 6种匹配方法测算农业信用担保贷款对农户家庭收入的净影响,并对其进行3种稳健性检验。进一步地,比较净影响在不同户主年龄、文化程度和耕地面积下的组群差异,并采用分位数回归模型实证检验农业信用担保贷款对不同收入水平农户家庭收入的具体影响。研究发现:(1)除户主年龄和担保机构业务门槛变量外,户主其他个人特征、农户生产特征和金融机构其他特征均是影响农户参与农业信用担保贷款的关键因素;(2)农业信用担保贷款能使农户农业收入、非农收入和总收入平均提高2.75%、2.38%和2.55%;(3)相比于其他年龄、文化程度和耕地规模的农户,农业信用担保贷款对户主年龄在46~55岁、文化程度为初中水平和耕地规模在20亩以下的农户收入影响更显著;(4)农业信用担保贷款能促进不同收入水平农户的家庭收入增长,而这一促进作用对高收入农户群体更强。This paper expounds on the mechanism of agricultural credit guaranteed loan(ACGL)on the income of farmers'households from the theoretical and mathematical perspectives.Based on the survey data of farmers in Shaanxi and Ningxia,this paper uses the OLS and Probit models as references to analyze the incentives for farmers to participate in ACGL through the Logit model.The six matching methods of PSM are used to calculate the net impact of ACGL on the household income of farmers,and three robustness tests are performed on the results.Furthermore,We compare the net impacts of the group differences under different household head age,education level and cultivated land area,and use quantile regression model to empirically test the specific impact of ACGL on household income of farmers with different income levels.The results show that:(1)in addition to the age of the head of the household and the business threshold of the guarantee agency,other personal characteristics of the head of the household,other characteristics of farmer's production and other characteristics of financial institutions are all key factors affecting farmers'participation in ACGL;(2)ACGL can increase the farmers'agricultural income,non-agricultural income and total income by an average of 2.75%,2.38%and 2.55%;(3)compared with farmers of other ages,education levels and scale of arable land,ACGL have a more significant impact on the income of farmers whose heads of households are 46-55 years old,have a junior high school education,and whose arable land scale is less than 20 mu;(4)ACGL can promote the growth of household income of farmers at different income levels,and this promotion effect is stronger for farmers from high-income groups.

关 键 词：农业信用担保贷款 农户收入 PSM方法 组群差异 分位数回归 

分 类 号：F832.43[经济管理—金融学] F323.8