2015—2020年臭氧对中国主要粮食作物产量及其经济效益的影响  

Impact of changes in ozone concentration in 2015-2020 on China’s major grain crop yields and economic benefits

作　　者：彭林[1,2] 李淇 蔡青旺 邱雄辉 PENG Lin;LI Qi;CAI Qingwang;QIU Xionghui(College of Environmental Science and Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;School of Environment,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100091,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学环境科学与工程学院,北京102206 [2]北京交通大学环境学院,北京100091

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2023年第8期2958-2968,共11页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(22106043)。

摘　　要：基于2015—2020年中国国控监测站点的臭氧观测数据,结合高时空分辨率的农田、农作物以及生长发育旬值数据,利用累积暴露阀值超过40 nmol/mol的暴露响应关系(Accumulate Exposure Over a Threshold of 40 nmol/mol,AOT40),评估臭氧污染导致3种主要农作物产量的损失。结果显示:在2015—2020年,春小麦、冬小麦、早稻、一季稻、晚稻、春玉米、套种玉米、夏玉米与剩余玉米的AOT40年均摩尔比分别为8.4~11.5μmol/mol、6.7~11.5μmol/mol、4.4~8.4μmol/mol、6.8~8.3μmol/mol、5.6~10.1μmol/mol、6.1~8.5μmol/mol、7.8~10.4μmol/mol、7.8~10.4μmol/mol和10.1~12.7μmol/mol。水稻、小麦和玉米AOT40较高区域主要集中在北京、河北、天津、山东、河南和山西等地,以及安徽、江苏等长三角地区,同时上述地区也为臭氧污染风险地区。2015—2020年中国春小麦、冬小麦、早稻、一季稻、晚稻、春玉米、套种玉米、夏玉米以及剩余玉米的相对产量损失分别为16.3%~26.1%、19.6%~33.7%、3.8%~6.6%、6.2%~7.6%、5.5%~10.5%、3.1%~4.3%、5.4%~7.0%、4.9%~6.7%和6.2%~8.0%。2015—2020年因臭氧污染引起的水稻、小麦和玉米产量损失分别为9917.5万t、30282.5万t和7700.6万t,经济损失分别为4.6×10^(10)美元、1.1×10^(11)美元和3.0×10^(10)美元。水稻、小麦和玉米等作物因臭氧污染所导致产量损失较大的区域主要为该作物主产区。本文量化了2015—2020年由于臭氧暴露导致的水稻、小麦和玉米产量及经济损失,结果可为全国臭氧污染管控与农业生产管理提供科学支撑。In this study,we evaluated the ozone-induced yield loss of three major crops using accumulated ozone exposure over a threshold of 40 nmol/mol(AOT40)exposure dose-response relationship based on the hourly ozone concentration data in China’s national monitoring stations from 2015 to 2020,the high spatial resolution of crops distribution,and crop growth data.The results show that the AOT40 of spring wheat,winter wheat,early rice,single-season rice,late rice,spring maize,interplanting maize,summer maize,and leftover maize in 2015—2020 ranged from 8.4-11.5μmol/mol,6.7-11.5μmol/mol,4.4-8.4μmol/mol,6.8-8.3μmol/mol,5.6-10.1μmol/mol,6.1-8.5μmol/mol,7.8-10.4μmol/mol,7.8-10.4μmol/mol and 10.1-12.7μmol/mol.The higher regions of AOT40 rice,wheat,and maize were mainly concentrated in Beijing-Tianjing-Hebei and surrounding areas(such as Beijing,Hebei,Tianjin,Shandong,Henan,and Shanxi)and Yangtze River delta(such as Anhui and Jiangsu),while the region is also a risk area for ozone pollution.The relative yield loss of spring wheat,winter wheat,early rice,single-season rice,late rice,spring maize,intercropping maize,summer maize,and maize from 2015 to 2020 were 16.3%-26.1%、19.6%-33.7%、3.8%-6.6%、6.2%-7.6%、5.5%-10.5%、3.1%-4.3%、5.4%-7.0%、4.9%-6.7%、6.2%-8.0%.The yield loss of rice,wheat,and maize caused by ozone pollution from 2015 to 2020 was 99.2 million tons,302.8 million tons,and 77.0 million tons,and the responding economic loss were 4.6×10^(10) US dollars,1.1×10^(11) US dollars,and 3.0×10^(10) US dollars,respectively.The areas with high yield losses due to ozone pollution in rice,wheat,and corn are mainly the main production areas of this crop.This study quantified the ozone-induced major crop yield loss and its corresponding economic losses,providing scientific support for ozone pollution control and agricultural production management in China.

关 键 词：环境学 臭氧污染 水稻 小麦 玉米 暴露响应关系 产量损失 经济损失 

分 类 号：X171[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X16