飞行员计划延续失误的心理机制  

The Psychological Mechanisms of Pilots’Plan Continuation Errors

作　　者：徐泉 刘博 李姝 姬鸣[1,2] 游旭群[1,2] Xu Quan;Liu Bo;Li Shu;Ji Ming;You Xuqun(School of Psychology,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an,710062;Shaanxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Behavior and Cognitive Neuroscience,Xi’an,710062;Flight Academy of Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin,300300)

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学心理学院,西安710062 [2]陕西省行为与认知神经科学重点实验室,西安710062 [3]中国民航大学飞行分校,天津300300

出　　处：《心理科学》2023年第4期833-840,共8页Journal of Psychological Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(19BSH038)的资助。

摘　　要：作为一种典型的飞行决策失误,计划延续失误是飞行员未根据实时情境变化及时调整已不安全的飞行计划,仍然按原计划持续飞行的现象,对于现代飞行安全具有重要影响。本文从情境评价、决策框架和认知启发等视角阐述了计划延续失误的心理机制,概括出飞行经验、人格特征、情绪状态、天气雷达显示系统、飞行环境、组织和社会压力等影响因素。未来要从新的视角进一步探究计划延续失误的心理机制,运用脑成像技术考察其神经基础,并加强对计划延续失误的干预研究。Plan Continuation Errors(PCEs)is defined as the“failure to revise a flight plan despite emerging evidence that it is no longer safe”.In this paper,we reviewed the scientific literature on PCEs.PCEs usually occur in weather-related decision-making situations,manifested by pilots unintentionally or intentionally using Visual Flight Rules(VFR)to manipulate the aircraft into Instrument Meteorological Conditions(IMC).In this case,the pilot loses the mental model and cognitive skills necessary to maintain control of the aircraft due to the lack of visual reference information to the horizon,causing catastrophic consequences.Therefore,how to identify and analyze the psychological characteristics and mechanisms of pilot PCEs is not only a frontier subject in aviation psychology research,but also a major practical problem that needs to be resolved in the current aviation safety management practice.The underlying mechanisms of the PCEs were summarized as follows:(1)Situation assessment.This mechanism believes that PCEs is caused by pilots who are completely unaware of severe weather conditions or fail to accurately diagnose weather changes and their severity.(2)Decisionmaking framework.This mechanism explains PCEs on the basis of the prospect theory and the sunk cost effect,which suggests that PCEs are caused by pilots'strong expectation of reaching their destination,which changed their decision-making framework,which in turn led to their underestimation of the severity of the weather.(3)Cognitive heuristics.This mechanism believes that pilots adopt cognitive shortcuts or cognitive heuristics to solve problems for easy cognitive workload,which can easily lead to cognitive bias in pilots'weather-related decision-making process,resulting in decision error and PCEs.In addition,researchers have conducted many empirical studies to understand factors that may affect pilot PCEs.To sum up,the results mainly focus on six aspects,including flight experience,personality characteristics,emotional state,weather radar display system

关 键 词：飞行员 计划延续失误 航空安全 心理机制 

分 类 号：V323[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]