新型电力系统多元用户的用电特征建模与用电负荷预测综述  

Review on Electricity Consumption Characteristic Modeling and Load Forecasting for Diverse Users in New Power System

作　　者：孔祥玉 马玉莹 艾芊[2] 张曦元 李闯 肖白[3] KONG Xiangyu;MA Yuying;AI Qian;ZHANG Xiyuan;LI Chuang;XIAO Bai(School of Electrical and Information Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China;School of Electrical Engineering,Northeast Electric Power University,Jilin 132012,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学电气自动化与信息工程学院,天津市300072 [2]上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程学院,上海市200240 [3]东北电力大学电气工程学院,吉林省吉林市132012

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2023年第13期2-17,共16页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2021YFB2401200)。

摘　　要：新型电力系统下,能源消费模式逐渐多样化,用户用电行为特征更加多元与复杂,增加了电力系统负荷精准预测的难度。聚焦新型电力系统环境下多元用户侧的柔性负荷资源,总结并分析了现有多元用户的用电特征建模技术和用电负荷预测技术。首先,从多源数据采集与预处理、用电特征提取、用户群体分类、关联因素分析4个环节对多元用户的用电特征建模技术进行归纳分析,总结了技术发展现状及存在问题。其次,分析了考虑需求响应的用电负荷预测发展趋势,并从多元用户侧的荷性可调资源和源性负荷资源两个方面对用电负荷预测技术进行了归纳分析,总结了多种类型用电负荷预测的研究思路。最后,讨论了新型电力系统下多元用户用电特征建模与用电负荷预测研究所面临的挑战,并结合新型电力系统和人工智能方法的特点,给出了参考性的建议与展望。In the new power system,energy consumption patterns are gradually diversified,and the characteristics of electricity consumption behaviors of users are more diverse and complex,which increases the difficulty of accurate load forecasting in the power system.This paper focuses on the flexible load resources on the diverse user side in the new power system environment,summarizes and analyzes the electricity consumption characteristic modeling technique and load forecasting technique of electricity consumption for diverse users.Firstly,the electricity consumption characteristic modeling technique for diverse users is analyzed from four aspects:diverse data collection and pre-processing,extraction of power consumption features,classification of user groups,and analysis of correlation factors,and the present situation of technical development and existing problems are summarized.Secondly,the development trend of load forecasting of electricity consumption considering demand response is analyzed,and the load forecasting techniques of electricity consumption are analyzed from two aspects:load-adjustable resources and source-load resources on the diverse user side,and the research ideas of various types of load forecasting of electricity consumption are summarized.Finally,the challenges faced by the research on electricity consumption characteristic modeling technique and load forecasting of electricity consumption for diverse users in the new power system are discussed,and reference suggestions and prospects are given considering the characteristics of the new power system and artificial intelligence methods.

关 键 词：新型电力系统 多元用户 特征建模 负荷预测 需求响应 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]