考虑需求不确定性和外部性的绿色新产品投资策略  

Green New Product Investment Strategy Considering Demand Uncertainty and Externality

作　　者：卢小军 林军[1] 孙连家 LU Xiao-jun;LIN Jun;SUN Lian-jia(School of Management,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710049,China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学管理学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《系统工程》2023年第4期29-38,共10页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71672140,72071154)。

摘　　要：本文通过分析垄断情况时绿色企业和非绿色企业的绿色新产品投资决策构建两阶段博弈模型,探讨需求不确定性和外部性对非绿色企业投资时机决策、市场份额以及市场利润的影响。研究表明,企业应该在不确定性低(高)的时候选择早(晚)投资绿色新产品;考虑外部性可以明显地鼓励非绿色企业早投资绿色产品;在需求不确定性相对较高时,较大的外部性使非绿色企业能比绿色企业更快选择单边早投资绿色新产品;当绿色产品的外部性足够大时,非绿色企业能够在市场份额和利润上获得竞争优势;即使非绿色企业晚投资,绿色企业单边早投资绿色新产品,非绿色企业也能在绿色市场规模和绿色产品外部性足够大时保证其市场份额和利润超过绿色企业。By analyzing the green new product investment decisions of the green firm and the non-green firm in the monopoly situation,a two-stage game model is constructed to explore the impact of demand uncertainty and externality on the non-green firm’s investment timing decision,market share and market profit.Research shows that firms should choose to invest their new green products early(late)when the demand uncertainty is low(high);considering externality can obviously encourage the non-green firm to invest the green product early;when demand uncertainty is relatively high,larger externality enables the non-green firm to choose unilaterally to invest the new green product earlier than the green firm;when the externality of green products are large enough,the non-green firm can gain competitive advantages in market share and profits.Assuming that the green firm unilaterally invest in green products early,the non-green firm can also ensure that their market share and profits exceed the green firm’s when the green market size and externality of green products are large enough.

关 键 词：绿色新产品 需求不确定性 外部性 投资时机 

分 类 号：F273[经济管理—企业管理]