基于个体传染病模型研究个体行为改变对甲型H1N1的影响  

The impact of individual behavior change on A/H1N1 based on the individual infectious disease model

作　　者：闫琴玲 肖燕妮[2] YAN Qinling;XIAO Yanni(School of Science,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710064,Shaanxi,China;School of Mathematics and Statistics,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710049,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学理学院,陕西西安710064 [2]西安交通大学数学与统计学院,陕西西安710049

出　　处：《陕西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第5期1-10,共10页Journal of Shaanxi Normal University：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(12001058);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划(2021JQ-215);陕西省高校科协青年人才托举计划(20210511)。

摘　　要：个体行为在突发性传染病传播过程中起着重要作用,通过行为改变来减缓和控制突发性传染病传播的能力是应对策略的一个重要方面,因此了解个体行为改变如何影响突发性传染病的传播至关重要。基于2009年甲型H1N1流感(A/H1N1)数据,建立基于社交网络的个体决策心理模型(LHBM),将个体行为改变率嵌入个体水平的传播动力学模型(IBMs),并研究个体行为改变如何影响A/H1N1的动态变化。然后,基于IBMs,应用基于序列蒙特卡罗的近似贝叶斯计算方法(ABC SMC)估计未知参数。结果表明:IBMs能更准确地描述A/H1N1的传播过程,揭示个体行为改变对A/H1N1暴发的影响。此外,媒体宣传的重点应集中在如何引导个体的行为改变,而且个体的积极响应对于缓解和控制突发性传染病至关重要。Individual behavior plays an important role in the spread of emerging infectious diseases,and the ability to mitigate and control a disease through behavior changes is a vital aspect of response strategies.It is essential and important to understand how individuals'behavior changes affect the spread of emerging infectious diseases.To address this,a psychological model of individual decision-making on social networks with infectious disease model(LHBM)is developed,and its applicability to the course of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza outbreak is demonstrated.Individual behavior models(IBMs)are formalized to incorporate the rate of change of individuals'behavior and investigated how individuals'behavior changes affect the dynamical development of A/H1N1.In addition,approximate Bayesian computation sequential Monte Carlo(ABC SMC)methods are used to evaluate unknown parameters.The main results indicated that the novel model can depict the real transmission process and reveal the effects of individual behavior changes on A/H1N1 outbreak more accurately.Moreover,as far as mitigating and controlling emerging infectious diseases are concerned,it is essential for media publicity to focus on how to guide individuals'behavior changes and get individuals to response positively.

关 键 词：个体行为改变 甲型H1N1流感 个体行为模型 LHBM模型 基于序列蒙特卡罗的近似贝叶斯计算方法 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学]