全球化背景下中国碳市场的减排和福利效应  

The Emission and Welfare Effects of China's Carbon Market in the Context of Globalization

作　　者：段玉婉[1] 蔡龙飞 陈一文 DUAN Yuwan;CAI Longfei;CHEN Yiwen(School of International Trade and Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics;Guanghua School of Management,Peking University)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院,100081 [2]北京大学光华管理学院,100871

出　　处：《经济研究》2023年第7期121-138,共18页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(22CJY019)的资助。

摘　　要：本文提出并建立了在全球化背景下囊括能源市场和碳减排的多地区多行业的一般均衡模型,将生产中能源的使用、碳排放、碳税、碳关税以及全球生产网络纳入模型,为在全球化背景下量化研究低碳政策的福利和排放效应奠定方法基础。本文利用结构式方法估计了模型的主要参数,量化研究了中国建立碳排放权交易系统和欧盟实施“碳边境调节机制”对中国和世界主要经济体的经济和碳排放的影响,并提出了新颖的渠道分解方法。结果表明中国实施碳市场可以降低中国碳排放、优化产业结构,但将通过降低出口竞争力为中国带来一定的福利损失。由于存在碳泄漏问题,中国实施碳市场对全球碳排放的降低影响有限。欧盟实施“碳边境调节机制”将对中国出口带来一定负面影响,但影响程度有限,对全球碳减排贡献有限。With the increasing severity of climate change,climate governance has gained significant attention and recognition as a primary development concern.Climate policies,along with trade policies,have become important components of the global policy coordination system.Within the context of global production networks,the production activities of different economies are closely interconnected.The economic effects of China's low-carbon policies will be transmitted and spread through the global value chain,ultimately affecting the welfare and carbon emissions of different economies.Therefore,to systematically quantify the economic,welfare,and emission effects of China's carbon market,the roles of international trade and production networks must be incorporated into a general equilibrium model.This study proposes a quantifiable multi-country multi-sector model of trade to quantify the impacts of China's implementation of the carbon market and the European Union(EU)'s carbon border adjustment mechanism(CBAM)on the welfare of China and other major economies worldwide.In comparison to existing literature,this study makes contributions in at least three aspects.Firstly,building upon the model of Eaton&Kortum(2002),this study proposes a multi-country multi-sector general equilibrium model that incorporates global production networks,supply and consumption of fossil energy and renewable energy,carbon emissions and carbon emission reductions,carbon taxes,and carbon border taxes.It can more accurately quantify the welfare effects of climate policies by depicting the actual global trade patterns and carbon emission patterns.Secondly,based on the proposed model and the counterfactual analysis,this study calibrates the parameters and quantifies the impacts of China's carbon market and the EU's CBAM on trade,carbon emissions,welfare,and industrial structure of China and major economies worldwide.Thirdly,this study estimates trade elasticities at the sectoral level and climate impact coefficients of carbon emissions for various econom

关 键 词：量化贸易模型 碳市场 碳关税 能源 全球生产网络 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F832.5[经济管理—金融学]