中国食物消费结构的收敛性研究  

The Convergence of Food Consumption Structure in China

作　　者：全世文[1,2] 张慧云 QUAN Shiwen;ZHANG Huiyun

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所 [2]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院

出　　处：《中国农村经济》2023年第7期56-79,共24页Chinese Rural Economy

摘　　要：本文在相似性度量方法的基础上定义了食物消费结构收敛性并提出了相应的检验方法。基于粮农组织的食物平衡表数据,本文分别计算了跨期和跨地区的食物消费结构相似性,进而检验了中国食物消费结构是否已经收敛到稳定状态。研究发现,中国食物消费总量虽然有追赶西方发达国家的趋势,但食物消费结构升级在2006年前后已经基本完成,此后进入了缓慢调整的阶段,且营养结构先于食物消费结构升级到稳定状态。当前,收入增长对中国食物消费结构调整的驱动作用已经非常微弱。谷物、肉类和果蔬类的供能结构变化在中国食物消费结构调整中发挥着关键作用。中国与典型国家的食物消费结构也早在2000年前后或更早就已经趋同到了稳定状态。中国三大营养要素的结构几乎完全趋同于日本和韩国,但食物消费结构与两国的趋同程度只达到且稳定在80%左右。对中国未来食物消费需求的预测要更加重视中国食物消费模式的特殊性。Based on similarity measures,this paper defines the convergence of food consumption structure(FCS)and proposes a corresponding test approach.Using food balance data provided by FAO,we calculate the cross-period and cross-region similarity of FCS respectively,through which whether the convergence of FCS in China has reached a steady state is tested.The study reveals that although the total food consumption in China is catching up with that of western developed countries,the upgrading of the FCS was already completed around 2007,which later entered the stage of slow adjustment,and the upgrading of the nutrition structure was completed even earlier.Currently,income growth has little impact on updating the food consumption structure.The change in energy supply structure of cereals,meat,fruit,and vegetables plays a key role in upgrading the FCS in China.The FCS in China and other countries and regions also converged to a stable state as early as around 2000 or even earlier.The three major nutrients’structure in China is almost completely converging to that in Korea and Japan,but the convergence degree of FCS only reaches approximately 80%and keeps stable.More attention should be paid to the specificity of China’s own food consumption patterns when predicting China’s future food demand.

关 键 词：食物消费结构 结构升级 结构相似性 收敛 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F014.5