人力资本贬值预期对女性生育决策的影响——基于职业生涯动态视角的分析  

The Impact of Expected Human Capital Depreciation on Women's Fertility Decisions:From A Career Dynamic Perspective

作　　者：夏璋煦 丁守海[1] Xia Zhangxu;Ding Shouhai

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学应用经济学院

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2023年第4期67-82,共16页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“强化就业优先政策、稳定和扩大就业研究”(编号:21ZDA098);中国人民大学应用经济学院拔尖创新人才项目“人力资本加速折旧与推迟生育”(编号:2023YJBJCX06)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：人口负增长形势下,提振女性生育水平和提高人力资源利用效率对完善新时代人口发展战略、促进人口高质量发展和推进中国式现代化具有重要意义。文章从职业生命周期视角考察了人力资本预期贬值情况对职业女性生育决策的影响,并使用2010~2020年中国家庭追踪调查数据和O*NET数据研究发现,职业生涯中预期人力资本较早贬值将促使女性推迟生育,并降低生育二孩的概率。异质性分析发现,上述效应主要体现在由技能更新、工作竞争属性引致的外部人力资本快速贬值群体中;对于因体力限制、职业危害所致的内部人力资本快速贬值群体,相应影响并不显著。文章研究结论为理解当代职业女性的生育行为提供了新的视角,也为合理开发利用人力资源、促进女性实现适度生育水平提供了经验参考。It is of great significance to improve the utilization efficiency of human resources and boost women's fertility in the era of negative population growth.This paper examines the impact of human capital depreciation on women's fertility decisions from the perspective of career life cycle.Using data from the China Family Panel Studies between 2010 and 2020 and the O*NET,we find that the working women who expect an earlier human capital depreciation in their career life are more likely to postpone their childbearing and reduce the probability of having a second child.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect is significant only for the external human capital depreciation caused by skill renewal or job competition,while the internal human capital depreciation caused by physical limitations and occupational hazards has no significant impact.These findings provide a new perspective for understanding women's fertility behaviors,and also highlights the importance to promote female fertility through rational development and utilization of human resources.

关 键 词：人力资本贬值 初育年龄 生育二孩 职业生命周期 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济] C924.21[经济管理—国民经济] C913.68[社会学—人口学]