贝叶斯因子及其应用  

Bayes Factor and Its Applications

作　　者：朱训 顾昕[1] ZHU Xun;GU Xin(Department of Educational Psychology,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学教育心理学系,上海200062

出　　处：《心理技术与应用》2023年第9期514-527,共14页Psychology(Techniques and Applications)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(32100894)。

摘　　要：贝叶斯因子检验是零假设显著性检验的替代方法,心理学研究者可使用贝叶斯因子评估数据支持或反对理论模型的证据。但是,贝叶斯因子的原理较为复杂,在实践中正确使用和解释贝叶斯因子存在一定难度。为此,本文介绍贝叶斯因子的定义、用法和解释,结合案例展示贝叶斯因子在评估零假设、区间假设、信息假设时的具体应用,并讨论贝叶斯因子在统计模型和实证研究中的应用进展。研究者在使用贝叶斯因子时应重点关注先验分布的设置、贝叶斯因子的解释、后验模型概率。Bayes factor hypothesis testing has become an attractive alternative to the null hypothesis significance testing.Psychological researchers can use Bayes factors to evaluate the evidence from the data to support or reject their theoretical models.However,the principle of Bayes factor is difficult,which makes it difficult to use and explain in practice.This article introduces the definition,usage,and explanation of Bayes factor.The use of Bayes factor is shown when evaluating the null hypothesis,interval hypothesis,and informative hypothesis,and illustrated using a real data example.Applications of Bayes factor in different statistical models and various psychological fields are discussed.When using Bayes factors,researchers should pay more attention to the prior specification,the interpretation of the Bayes factor,and the posterior model probability.

关 键 词：贝叶斯因子 先验分布 后验模型概率 发表偏差 

分 类 号：B841[哲学宗教—基础心理学]