中国西北地区多情景土地利用优化与碳储量评估  

Multi-scenario Land Use Optimization and Carbon Storage Assessment in Northwest China

作　　者：陈宁 辛存林[1,2] 唐道斌 张亮 辛顺杰[3] CHEN Ning;XIN Cun-lin;TANG Dao-bin;ZHANG Liang;XIN Shun-jie(College of Geography and Environmental Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Key Laboratory of Resource Environment and Sustainable Development of Oasis,Lanzhou 730070,China;College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730030,China)

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070 [2]甘肃省绿洲资源环境与可持续发展重点实验室,兰州730070 [3]兰州大学资源与环境学院,兰州730030

出　　处：《环境科学》2023年第8期4655-4665,共11页Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41972020)。

摘　　要：土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)是导致陆地生态系统碳储量变化的主要因素,研究未来不同情景下的土地利用和碳储量变化过程,有助于制定科学的土地利用政策和提高区域陆地生态系统碳储量.研究构建了GMMOP-PLUS-InVEST模型,通过多源数据分析了2000~2020年中国西北地区土地利用和碳储量的变化特征,并预测了自然发展(ND)、经济发展(ED)、生态保护(EP)和综合发展(CD)情景下的2030年中国西北地区土地利用和碳储量.结果表明:①2000~2020年,草地面积减少了1680.99×10^(4)hm^(2),耕地、林地、水域、湿地、建筑用地和未利用地面积分别增加了201.19×10^(4)、208.47×10^(4)、91.54×10^(4)、51.30×10^(4)、157.40×10^(4)和971.09×10^(4)hm^(2).②2000~2020年,土壤和地下碳储量减少,死亡有机物和地上碳储量增加,总碳储量减少了677.97×10^(6)t,草地退化是碳储量减少的主要原因.③与2020年相比,ND情景总碳储量减少了63.12×10^(6)t,ED、EP和CD情景总碳储量分别增加了759.19×10^(6)、804.57×10^(6)和817.89×10^(6)t,CD情景是最优的发展模式.研究结果可以为区域土地利用规划及增加陆地生态系统碳储量提供参考依据.Land use/cover change(LUCC)is the main factor leading to the change in carbon stock of terrestrial ecosystems.Studying the process of land use and carbon storage change under different scenarios in the future will help to formulate scientific land use policies and increase regional terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage.The GMMOP-PLUS-InVEST model was constructed to analyze the change characteristics of land use and carbon storage in northwest China from 2000 to 2020 through multi-source data and to predict the land use and carbon storage in northwest China in 2030 under the scenarios of natural development(ND),economic development(ED),ecological protection(EP),and comprehensive development(CD).The results showed that:①from 2000 to 2020,the area of grassland decreased by 1680.99×10^(4)hm^(2),and the area of cultivated land,forest land,water area,wetland,construction land,and unused land increased by 201.19×10^(4),208.47×10^(4),91.54×10^(4),51.30×10^(4),157.40×10^(4),and 971.09×10^(4)hm^(2),respectively.②From 2000 to 2020,soil and underground carbon storage decreased,dead organic matter and aboveground carbon storage increased,and total carbon storage decreased by 677.97×10^(6)t.Grassland degradation was the main reason for the decrease in carbon storage.③Compared to that in 2020,the total carbon storage in the ND scenario was reduced by 63.12×10^(6)t,and the total carbon storage in the ED,EP,and CD scenarios increased by 759.19×10^(6),804.57×10^(6),and 817.89×10^(6)t,respectively;the CD scenario was the optimal development model.These results can provide a reference for regional land use planning and the increase of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage.

关 键 词：土地利用/覆盖变化 碳储量 多情景 中国西北地区 陆地生态系统 GMMOP-PLUS-InVEST模型 

分 类 号：X144[环境科学与工程—环境科学]