密云水库流域1960-2021年水文变量演变特征分析  

Analysis on the evolution characteristics of hydrological variables in Miyun Reservoir watershed from 1960 to 2021

作　　者：樊敏 王槿妍 张冠宇 FAN Min;WANG Jinyan;ZHANG Guanyu(Beijing Miyun Reservoir Management Office,Beijing 101512,China;Beijing Hydrological Center,Beijing 100089,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市密云水库管理处,北京101512 [2]北京市水文总站,北京100089

出　　处：《水利建设与管理》2023年第9期31-39,30,共10页Water Conservancy Construction and Management

摘　　要：本文利用密云水库流域近62年的降水量和径流量资料,采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法,分析流域年、汛期和非汛期降水演变规律及年度、季节径流变化趋势和突变特征。结果表明:1960—2021年密云水库流域降水波动较大,年内分布不均,汛期降水量呈不显著下降趋势,非汛期呈显著上升趋势。流域年径流量总体在波动中呈现明显递减的趋势,各个季节的径流量变化趋势一致,均通过了0.01显著性检验,各季节径流量下降趋势显著。密云水库流域降水量和径流量突变特征存在差异性,径流量突变点较降水量突变点明显偏少,表明降水量波动性更大,径流量呈衰减趋势,可能与流域气候变化及人类活动的影响有关。本文分析了近62年密云水库流域水文变化趋势和规律,以期为流域水资源规划、防灾减灾等提供参考。This paper uses precipitation and runoff data from Miyun Reservoir watershed over the past 62 years and employs the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test to analyze the evolution of precipitation during the year,flood season,and non-flood season,as well as the trends and abrupt changes in annual and seasonal runoff.The results indicate that from 1960 to 2021,the precipitation in Miyun Reservoir watershed exhibited significant fluctuations and uneven distribution throughout the year.The precipitation during the flood season showed a non-significant decreasing trend,while the non-flood season exhibited a significant increasing trend.The annual runoff in the watershed showed an overall declining trend amid fluctuations,and the trends in runoff for all seasons were consistent,passing the 0.01 significance test,with a significant decreasing trend in runoff for each season.There were differences in the abrupt changes between precipitation and runoff in Miyun Reservoir watershed,with noticeably fewer abrupt changes in runoff compared to precipitation.This suggests that precipitation variability is more significant,and the runoff is declining,possibly due to the impact of climate change and human activities.This paper analyzes the hydrological trends and patterns in Miyun Reservoir watershed over the past 62 years,aiming to provide reference data for water resource planning,disaster prevention,and mitigation in the watershed.

关 键 词：密云水库流域 降水量 径流量 Mann-Kendall检验法 突变分析 

分 类 号：TV121.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]