无信号交叉口人车冲突严重程度影响因素分析  

Influencing factors on severity of vehicle-pedestrian conflict at unsignalized intersections

作　　者：张名芳 马艳华 马勇[2] ZHANG Mingfang;MA Yanhua;MA Yong(Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Road Intelligent Traffic Control Technology,North China University of Technology,Beijing 100144,China;School of Automobile,Chang'an University,Xi'an Shaanxi 710064,China)

机构地区：[1]北方工业大学城市道路智能交通控制技术北京市重点实验室,北京100144 [2]长安大学汽车学院,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2023年第8期190-197,共8页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(51905007);北京市教育委员会科学研究计划项目(KM202210009013)。

摘　　要：为提高无信号交叉口通行效率并改善行人过街安全性,利用K-means++算法聚类冲突指标以判定人车冲突严重程度,通过多重共线性检验和皮尔逊相关性分析剔除严重共线性和影响不显著的因素,并进行影响因素强弱程度排序,采用多元有序Logistic回归算法,对比分析各显著独立因素对人车冲突严重程度的具体影响。结果表明:以碰撞时间、间隙时间、安全减速度为冲突指标,可将人车冲突严重程度分为严重、一般和轻微冲突;行人特征中,性别、分心行为、等候时间、平均穿越速度以及是否有人陪同对冲突严重程度的影响强弱程度依次减小;车辆特征中,车头时距、行驶意图和车辆类型对冲突严重程度有显著影响。In order to improve the crossing efficiency at unsignalized intersections and the safety of pedestrian crossings,K-means++algorithm was used to cluster the conflict indicators to determine the severity of vehicle-pedestrian conflict.Severe multicollinearity and insignificant influencing factors were eliminated by multi-collinearity test and Pearson correlation analysis,and then the influencing factors were ranked.Multiple ordered Logistic regression algorithm was used to compare and analyze the specific influence of each significant independent factor on the severity of vehicle-pedestrian conflicts.The results show that the severity of vehicle-pedestrian conflicts can be divided into severe,general and minor conflicts by taking time to collision,gap time and deceleration to safety time as conflict indicators.The influence of gender,distracted behavior,waiting time,average crossing speed and whether accompanied by others on the severity of conflict decreased successively among the pedestrian characteristics.Headway,driving intention and vehicle type have significant effects on the severity of conflict among the vehicle characteristics.

关 键 词：无信号交叉口 人车冲突严重程度 影响因素 K-means++算法 多元有序Logistic回归 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]