5G基站和数据中心的中长期负荷预测研究  

Research on Medium and Long Term Load Forecasting of 5G Base Stations and Data Centers

作　　者：马玉草 高鹏飞 张铁峰[1,3] 梁海峰[1] MA Yucao;GAO Pengfei;ZHANG Tiefeng;LIANG Haifeng(School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,China;Extra-High Voltage Power Supply Bureau of Inner Mongolia District,Hohhot 010080,China;Key Laboratory of Power Internet of Things Technology of Hebei Province,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,河北保定071003 [2]内蒙古超高压供电局,内蒙古自治区呼和浩特010080 [3]河北省电力物联网技术重点实验室(华北电力大学),河北保定071003

出　　处：《电力科学与工程》2023年第9期63-70,共8页Electric Power Science and Engineering

基　　金：全球能源互联网集团有限公司科技项目(SGGEIGOOJYJS2100037)。

摘　　要：为实现在电网规划中考虑5G基站和数据中心的大规模建设所带来的电能需求,针对该负荷的长期负荷预测问题,提出了可变增长率的趋势预测方法和负荷预测流程。通过增长率修正,改进了趋势预测模型。在考虑技术进步对能耗的影响以及未来发展饱和趋势的条件下,给出了5G基站和数据中心电量预测流程,实现了5G基站和数据中心未来5~10年的电量预测,并给出高、中、低3种增长率场景下的预测结果,为电网规划中考虑信息基础设施电能需求提供了依据。In order to realize the power demand brought by the large-scale construction of 5G base station and data center in power network planning,the long-term load forecasting of this load is discussed,and the trend forecasting method of variable growth rate and load forecasting process are put forward.The trend prediction model is improved by modifying the growth rate.Considering the influence of technological progress on energy consumption and the saturation trend of future development,the flow chart of 5G base station and data center is given.The electric quantity forecast of 5G base station and data center in the future 5-10 a is realized,and the forecast results of high,medium and low growth rate scenarios are given,which provides a basis for considering the power demand of information infrastructure in power network planning.

关 键 词：5G基站 数据中心 预测模型 负荷预测 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]