考虑列车随机延误的铁路网络客流均衡分配方法  

Passenger flow equilibrium assignment method for railway networks considering stochastic train delays

作　　者：徐光明[1] 宋洋洋 钟林环 武润发 XU Guangming;SONG Yangyang;ZHONG Linhuan;WU Runfa(School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410075

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2023年第9期3298-3309,共12页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72171236);中南大学研究生自主探索创新项目(1053320216477)。

摘　　要：铁路客流均衡分配是旅客出行选择的集中体现,对旅客列车开行方案和列车运行图等的评价和优化十分重要。实际运营中列车的随机延误会导致铁路旅客的出行时间发生变化,影响旅客的出行,尤其是换乘选择。考虑旅客在路径选择决策过程中的出行时间可靠性和不可靠性2个方面因素,提出一种考虑列车随机延误的铁路网络客流均衡分配方法。首先,构建旅客换乘网络,基于提出的期望−超额出行成本(METC)概念,考虑换乘过程中列车的延误概率,计算旅客的换乘成功概率和换乘周期选择;然后,进一步计算旅客出行路径的期望−超额成本,基于用户均衡条件,构建考虑列车随机延误的期望−超额客流均衡分配模型;最后,考虑到期望−超额出行成本的不可加性,结合相继平均法和k-最短路算法设计基于路径的客流分配算法,并对均衡模型进行求解。通过对一个简单算例和广珠铁路实例进行分析,结果表明:同时考虑出行时间的可靠性和不可靠性时,旅客的出行路径选择和换乘选择与仅考虑出行时间可靠性有较大差异,基于期望−超额的铁路网络客流分配模型可以更加准确地描述考虑列车随机延误的旅客的出行选择行为,证实了均衡分配方法的有效性。因此提出的客流分配方法可以为铁路网络旅客列车开行方案等的制定和优化提供理论依据。The passenger flow equilibrium assignment on railway networks predicts the passengers’path choice,and it is important to the evaluation and optimization of passenger train plan and train timetable.Stochastic train delays in practical operation will influence the travel time of passengers in the railway system and affect their path choice behaviors,especially transfer choices.Considering the travel time reliability and unreliability in the path choice,the mean-excess passenger flow equilibrium assignment method for railway networks was proposed under stochastic train delay.Firstly,the passenger transfer network was constructed.Based on the proposed concept of mean-excess travel cost and considering the delay probability of trains in the transfer process,the probability of successful transfer and the transfer cycle choice of passengers were calculated.Secondly,the meanexcess travel cost of the passenger travel path was further calculated,and the mean-excess passenger flow assignment model was established based on the user equilibrium condition.Finally,considering the non-additivity of the mean-excess travel cost,this paper designed a path-based assignment algorithm combining the method of successive average and k-shortest path algorithm to solve the proposed model.The analysis of a hypothetical example and the case of the Guangzhou-Zhuhai Railway indicate that when considering the travel time reliability and unreliability simultaneously,passengers’path choice and transfer choices behaviors are different from those only consider travel time reliability.The passenger flow assignment model can more accurately describe the travel choice behavior of passengers under stochastic train delays,which demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed equilibrium assignment method.Therefore,the proposed passenger flow assignment method can provide a theoretical foundation for the formulation and optimization of the passenger train plan on railway networks.

关 键 词：铁路网络 列车随机延误 出行可靠性和不可靠性 期望−超额出行成本 用户均衡 

分 类 号：U293.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]