改进二维云模型的信息工程监理风险评估  

Improving Two-dimensional Cloud Models for Risk Assessment of Information Engineering Supervision

作　　者：杨舒云 刘宏志[1] 李海生[1] YANG Shu-yun;LIU Hong-zhi;LI Hai-sheng(Science and Engineering College,Beijing Technology and Business University,Beijing 100048,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学计算机学院,北京100048

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2023年第26期11292-11298,共7页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61877002);北京市自然科学基金(L191009);北京市教委-市自然基金委联合资助项目(KZ202110011017)。

摘　　要：针对传统信息工程监理风险评估具有随机性与模糊性,提出了改进二维云模型的风险评估模型。通过三角模糊层次分析理论确定各风险因素权重,以可能性和严重度为基础变量,构建基于二维云模型的风险云图,在加权有序几何平均算子(order weighted geometric averaging operator,OWGA)的基础上引入情境参数,根据决策者的风险偏好优化各准则层风险云与云标尺的贴近度排序。经过实例仿真,表明所提模型可以在融合专家智慧的同时,避免定性云转换为定量值的损失,将风险以蕴含随机性和模糊性的形式可视化,经改进贴近度确定风险等级,验证了其有效性及优越性。Aiming at the randomness and fuzziness of traditional information engineering supervision risk assessment,a risk assessment model was proposed to improve the two-dimensional cloud model.By determining the weights of each risk factor through triangular fuzzy hierarchical analysis theory,constructing a risk cloud map based on the two-dimensional cloud model with likelihood and severity as the base variables,introducing contextual parameters based on the order weighted geometric averaging operator(OWGA),and according to the risk preferences of decision makers The risk cloud of each criterion layer was optimized to rank the closeness to the cloud scale.After example simulations,it is shown that the proposed model can integrate expert wisdom while avoiding the loss of converting qualitative clouds to quantitative values,visualizing risks in a form that contains randomness and fuzziness,and determining risk levels by improving the proximity,which verifies its effectiveness and superiority.

关 键 词：二维云模型 信息工程监理 风险评估 三角模糊数 加权有序几何平均算子(OWGA) 

分 类 号：TP301[自动化与计算机技术—计算机系统结构]