变化环境下子牙河流域水文过程影响要素分析  

Analysis of factors influencing hydrological processes in the Ziya River Basin under changing environment

作　　者：李发文[1] 陶仁杰 LI Fawen;TAO Renjie(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津300072

出　　处：《水资源保护》2023年第5期9-17,共9页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52179020,52239004)。

摘　　要：构建添加水库及取用水模块的SWAT模型,在考虑人类活动影响的基础上,分析土地利用类型及气候变化对子牙河流域水文要素的影响,并利用统合还原法计算人类活动及气候变化对研究区的径流变化的贡献率。结果表明:1980-2020年草地、耕地及水域面积呈减少趋势,建设用地呈增加趋势,其他土地利用类型变化趋势不明显;土地利用类型变化使得流域地表产流增加3.5 mm,地下水补给和蒸散发分别减少0.15 mm和2.93 mm;1980-2020年研究区年降水量呈不显著上升趋势,年气温呈显著上升趋势,气候变化使得流域地表产流、地下水补给及蒸散发有不同程度的增加;人类活动和气候变化对流域径流减少的贡献率分别为66.36%和33.64%,人类活动占据相对主导的地位。A SWAT model with added reservoir and water intake modules was constructed.On the basis of considering the impact of human activities,the impact of land use types and climate change on hydrological elements in the Ziya River Basin was analyzed.And the integrated reduction method was used to calculate the contribution rate of human activities and climate change to the runoff changes in the study area.The results show that from 1980 to 2020,the area of grassland,arable land,and water showed a decreasing trend,while the area of construction land showed an increasing trend.The change trend of other land use types was not significant.The change in land use type has led to an increase of 3.5 mm in surface runoff in the basin,and a decrease of 0.15 mm and 2.93 mm in groundwater recharge and evaporation,respectively.From 1980 to 2020,the annual precipitation in the research area showed an insignificant upward trend,while the annual temperature showed a significant upward trend.Climate change has led to varying degrees of increase in surface runoff,groundwater recharge,and evapotranspiration in the basin.The contribution rates of human activities and climate change to the reduction of watershed runoff are 66.36% and 33.64%,respectively,with human activities occupying a relatively dominant position.

关 键 词：人类活动 气候变化 土地利用类型 SWAT模型 子牙河流域 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]