政策不确定性与土地出让价格“剪刀差”——基于官员变更频率的视角  

Policy Uncertainty and“Scissors Gap”of Land Transfer Price—From the Ferspective of Official Turnover Frequency

作　　者：豆建民[1] 王光丽 马融 DOU Jianmin;WANG Guangli;MA Rong(Institute of Finance and Economics,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China;School of Public Economics and Administration,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学财经研究所,上海200433 [2]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,上海200433

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2023年第5期89-102,共14页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“区域一体化视角下污染产业空间分布的边界效应与区域协调对策研究”(71974120);上海市哲学社会科学规划项目“长三角一体化对污染产业区域分布的影响研究”(2018BJL005)。

摘　　要：土地出让过程中地方政府官员利用“压低工业地价、抬高住宅地价”的方式发展地方经济,导致不同用途的土地出让价格之间形成巨大的“剪刀差”。地方政府官员变更频繁带来的政策不确定性将影响土地市场价格波动。基于官员变更频率的视角,在构建理论模型的基础上,使用2009—2018年中国211个城市面板数据,运用双向固定效应模型检验政策不确定性对土地出让价格“剪刀差”的影响与机制。研究发现:(1)官员变更频率增高引致的政策不确定性将显著减小住宅—工业用地出让价格“剪刀差”;(2)这种政策不确定性对土地出让价格“剪刀差”的影响呈现区域位置和城市规模的异质性;(3)住宅—工业用地出让价格“剪刀差”随中国共产党全国代表大会的召开呈现政治周期性;(4)引入政企合谋变量后发现,官员变更频率越高,越能够通过削弱政企合谋效应的机制减小住宅—工业用地出让价格“剪刀差”。据此提出,应完善官员治理制度,规范地方政企关系;推进土地制度市场化改革,激发土地市场活力。Local government officials in China wield significant influence over economic and social development.The pressure for promotion and the pursuit of political performance may lead these officials to engage in practices such as transferring industrial land at low prices and residential land at high prices.They might exploit collusion between government and enterprises to rapidly achieve their political goals by“attracting investment with land and generating wealth with land”.However,the stability of government-enterprise relationships takes time to develop,and frequent turnover of local officials introduces policy uncertainty that disrupts previously established networks between officials and enterprises.Therefore,frequent official turnover is conducive to controlling the behavior of officials and enterprises,weakening the collusion effect between government and enterprises,and thus reducing the price scissors of residential-industrial land.This paper investigates the impact of official turnover frequency on land transfer price discrepancies using a theoretical model and a fixed-effects model with panel data from 211 cities between 2009 and 2018.The results of the study show that:(1)Increasing the frequency of official turnover significantly reduces the price gap between residential and industrial land sales.This paper also examines the effects of official turnover frequency on residential and industrial land prices,showing that higher turnover rates lead to more pronounced reductions in residential land prices and increases in industrial land prices,thereby corroborating the main conclusions.(2)The effect of official turnover frequency on land price discrepancies varies across different regions and cities of various sizes.The negative impact of increased official turnover on land price gaps is more pronounced in small and medium-sized cities compared to large cities.Moreover,the increase in official turnover frequency in the eastern and central regions substantially reduces the price gap between residential and

关 键 词：政策不确定性 官员变更频率 土地出让价格 “剪刀差” 

分 类 号：D630.3[政治法律—政治学] F301.2[政治法律—中外政治制度] F120[经济管理—产业经济]