清徐县1960—2019年气温变化特征分析及其对农业的影响  

The Analysis of Temperature Variation and Its Effect on Agriculture in Qingxu County During 1960-2019

作　　者：段晓瞳 王溢梅 杜军军 张宇建 郗秉韬 DUAN Xiaotong;WANG Yimei;DU Junjun;ZHANG Yujian;XI Bingtao(Qingxu Meteorological Bureau,Taiyuan 030400;Gujiao Meteorological Bureau,Taiyuan 030200)

机构地区：[1]清徐县气象局,太原030400 [2]古交市气象局,太原030200

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2023年第26期116-122,共7页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题“近海岸边界层大气污染光学参数激光雷达反演技术研究”(2018YFC0213101)。

摘　　要：研究清徐县气温时空变化特征及规律,为今后气象为农业生产服务和应对气候变化提供参考依据,推动当地经济可持续发展。选取清徐县1960—2019年的气温观测资料和粮食产量资料并进行气候倾向率、滑动平均计算法和Mann-Kendall趋势检验与突变等分析。结果表明:清徐县年平均气温整体呈上升趋势,气温倾向率为0.27℃/10 a;冷暖期以20世纪90年代为界线;年代际变化趋势为“显著上升—不变—显著上升—平缓上升”;存在明显的突变点,时间为1991年。四季平均气温也基本呈现出上升趋势,春季气温上升最为显著;年代际变化整体呈现波动增温趋势;春季、秋季和冬季平均气温均存在明显的突变点,时间分别为1996、1994、1980年。全年粮食总产量和秋粮年产量与年平均气温显著相关,夏粮年产量与年平均气温不相关,并据此提出合理开发利用农业资源的建议。Studying the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of temperature in Qingxu County will provide reference for future meteorological services and climate change for agricultural production,and promote sustainable local economic development.Data of temperature and grain yield from 1960 to 2019 in Qingxu was selected and analyzed by the climate propensity rates,moving average calculations methods,Mann-Kendall trend tests and mutations.The results showed that:the annual average temperature in Qingxu was on the rise,and the trend rate of air temperature was 0.27℃/10 a.In the 1990s,there was an obvious line between the cold period and warm period.The interdecadal variation trend was“significant increase—steady—significant increase—gradual increase”,and there was an obvious catastrophe point in 1991.The average temperature in the four seasons also showed an upward trend,with a significant rise in spring.The interdecadal change showed a fluctuating warming trend.The average temperature in spring,autumn and winter had obvious mutation points,with the time of 1996,1994 and 1980,respectively.The total annual grain output and the annual autumn grain yield were significantly correlated with the annual average temperature,but the annual summer grain yield was uncorrelated.Based on these,reasonable proposals for development and utilization of agricultural resources were put forward.

关 键 词：气温变化 农业 清徐县 突变分析 粮食产量 

分 类 号：S161.22[农业科学—农业气象学]