ARIMA模型在儿科红细胞用量预测中的应用  

Application of ARIMA model in predicting pediatric red blood cell usage

作　　者：杨媛淇 何柏霖 温普生 彭雪松[1] 胡娟 郭玉霞[1] YANG Yuanqi;HE Bolin;WEN Pusheng;PENG Xuesong;HU Juan;GUO Yuxia(Department of Blood Transfusion,Children′s Hospital of Chongqing Medical University,National Clinical Research Center of Child Health and Disease,Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatrics,Chongqing 400014,China.)

机构地区：[1]重庆医科大学附属儿童医院输血科国家儿童健康与疾病临床医学研究中心儿童发病疾病研究教育部重点实验室儿科学重庆市重点实验室,重庆400014

出　　处：《中国输血杂志》2023年第9期822-826,共5页Chinese Journal of Blood Transfusion

摘　　要：目的探讨自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)用于预测儿科悬浮红细胞用量的可行性,为儿童医院临床血液储备计划制定提供依据。方法利用SPSS26.0软件,以重庆医科大学附属儿童医院2016年3月至2022年5月每月临床悬浮红细胞用血总量作为数据源构建ARIMA模型,运用最优模型预测2022年6至10月临床悬浮红细胞用量,检验模型预测效果。结果ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12为儿科悬浮红细胞用量预测最佳模型,其残差序列自相关函数与偏自相关函数基本落在95%置信区间内,同时Ljung-Box Q统计结果表明残差不存在相关关系(P>0.05),即残差为白噪声,满足随机性假设。模型预测值与2022年6至10月临床红细胞用量实际值比较,平均相对误差为5%,预测精确度高。结论儿童用血具有明显季节和周期规律,最优模型ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12能较好拟合儿科悬浮红细胞用量的变化趋势,进而为儿童医院临床血液储备计划制定提供依据。Objective To explore the feasibility of using autoregressive moving average model(ARIMA)to predict the dosage of suspended red blood cells in children,and to provide a basis for the development of clinical blood reserve plans in children′s hospitals.Methods ARIMA model was constructed using the total blood consumption of clinical suspended red blood cells from March 2016 to May 2022 at the Children′s Hospital of Chongqing Medical University as the data source by SPSS26.0 software.The optimal model was used to predict the clinical suspended red blood cell consumption from June to Oc⁃tober 2022,and the predictive effect of the model was tested.Results ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 was the optimal model for predicting the consumption of suspended red blood cells in pediatrics.The autocorrelation function and partial auto⁃correlation function of the residual sequence basically fell within the 95%confidence interval.At the same time,Ljung⁃Box Q statistical results showed that there was no correlation between the residual(P>0.05),indicating that the residual was white noise,which met the randomicity hypothesis.The average relative error between the predicted values of the model and the ac⁃tual clinical red blood cell usage from June to October 2022 was 5%,indicating high prediction accuracy.Conclusion The blood usage of children has obvious seasonal and periodic patterns,and the optimal model ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 can better fit the trend of changes in pediatric suspended red blood cell usage,thus providing a basis for the development of clini⁃cal blood reserve plans in children′s hospitals.

关 键 词：ARIMA模型 儿科输血 预测 红细胞 

分 类 号：R457.1[医药卫生—治疗学] R331.1[医药卫生—临床医学]