湖北省1949年以前疟疾流行的时空规律及驱动机制  

Spatial-temporal laws and its driving mechanism of malaria epidemics in Hubei Province before 1949

作　　者：张涛[1,2] 曾雨欣 陈志禹 闫晋博 梅琳[1,2] 王晓伟 石国宁 龚胜生[1,2] ZHANG Tao;ZENG Yuxin;CHEN Zhiyu;YAN Jinbo;MEI Lin;WANG Xiaowei;SHI Guoning;GONG Shengsheng(Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographical Process Analysis and Simulation,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China;Institute of Sustainable Development,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China;College of Tourism,Shandong Women’s University,Jinan 250300,China;School of Economics and Management,Handan University,Handan 056006,Hebei,China)

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学地理过程分析与模拟湖北省重点实验室,武汉430079 [2]华中师范大学可持续发展研究中心,武汉430079 [3]山东女子学院旅游学院,济南250300 [4]邯郸学院经济管理学院,河北邯郸056006

出　　处：《华中师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第5期661-672,723,共13页Journal of Central China Normal University：Natural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42371265);国家社会科学基金冷门绝学研究专项学术团队项目(21VJXT015);国家自然科学基金青年项目(41801141);中央高校基本科研业务费“人文社科类”高水平后期自主培育专项(CCNU23HQ014).

摘　　要：该文基于疫情史料和环境资料,运用M-K检验、小波分析、空间自相关模型、疫情重心模型和地理加权回归模型,分析1949年以前湖北省疟疾流行的时空分布规律及影响因素.结果表明:1)清代(1644—1911年)268个年份间共有14个疟疾年份,频率为5.2%,民国(1912—1949年)疟疾愈加频繁,38个年份间共有20个疟疾年份,频率为52.6%.民国疟疾流行呈现波动变化趋势,1940年为疟疾开始突变增长的时间点.民国疟疾疫情存在18年和4年两个时间尺度的波动周期,平均每隔约12年发生一次大流行,约3年发生一次小流行.流行季节以夏秋为主,春季次之,冬季最少.2)湖北省疟疾流行呈现出蔓延扩散的特征,由斑块散状分布发展成集中连片分布,武汉三镇和宜昌是两个疫情中心.湖北省疟疾疫情在空间上呈现显著集聚态势,高高集聚区包括在武昌、汉口、汉阳和宜都,高低集聚区有竹山,在宜昌周边形成一条由兴山、远安、当阳和长阳等县组成的低高集聚带,未出现低低集聚区.湖北省疟疾重心一直在几何中心附近东西向摆动并逐渐向北偏移,反映了疫情分布不稳定并逐渐向北加重.3)河网、战乱、旱灾等因素对湖北疟疾流行均具有促进作用且在鄂东地区更为显著,鄂西地区路网的完善对疟疾流行的抑制作用更为强烈.疟疾流行时间变化特征主要受气候和战乱因素的影响,空间分布规律主要受人口、河网和交通因素的影响.疟疾流行的驱动机制由疟疾流行的基本环节、疟疾流行的影响因素、疟疾流行的时空规律三个方面组成,并通过各种分析方法有机联系起来.Based on the historical and environmental data of the epidemic,using M-K test,wavelet analysis,spatial autocorrelation model,epidemic center of gravity model and geographically weighted regression model,the spatiotemporal distribution and influencing factors of malaria epidemic in Hubei Province before 1949 were analyzed.The results were shown as follows.1)In Qing Dynasty(1644-1911),there were 14 malaria years in 268 years,with a frequency of 5.2%.In the Republic of China(1912-1949),malaria became more frequent,with a total of 20 malaria years in 38 years,with a frequency of 52.6%.The prevalence of malaria in the Republic of China showed a fluctuating trend,and 1940 was the time point when malaria began to mutate and grow.The malaria epidemic in the Republic of China has fluctuation cycles of 18 years and 4 years.On average,a major epidemic occurs every 12 years,and a minor epidemic occurs every 3 years.The popular seasons are mainly summer and autumn,followed by spring and least in winter.2)The malaria epidemic in Hubei Province showed the characteristics of spreading,and developed from scattered patches to concentrated contiguous distribution.The three towns in Wuhan and Yichang were the two epidemic centers.The malaria epidemic in Hubei Province shows a significant spatial agglomeration trend.The high-high agglomeration areas include Wuchang,Hankou,Hanyang,and Yidu,and the only high-low agglomeration area is Zhushan.A low-high agglomeration belt composed of Xingshan,Yuan’an,Dangyang,and Ch angyang counties is formed around Yichang.No low agglomeration area appeared.The malaria center of gravity in Hubei Province has been oscillating east-west near the geometric center and gradually shifting northward,reflecting the unstable distribution of the epidemic and gradually increasing northward.3)Factors such as river network,war,drought have a promoting effect on the malaria epidemic in Hubei,and it is more significant in the eastern part of Hubei.The improvement of the road network in the western part of Hubei has

关 键 词：湖北 疟疾 时空规律 驱动机制 

分 类 号：K901.9[历史地理—人文地理学] R188[医药卫生—流行病学]