对华反倾销会影响企业跨国并购成功率吗?  

Does Anti-dumping Against China Affect the Success Rate of Cross-Border M&A?

作　　者：陈奉先[1] 李娜 Chen Fengxian;Li Na(School of Finance,Capital University of Economics and Business;School of Finance,Shandong University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学金融学院 [2]山东财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《经济科学》2023年第5期102-122,共21页Economic Science

基　　金：北京市社科基金一般项目;北京市教育委员会科研计划重点项目“国际资本流动突然停止冲击的微观影响与治理对策:以北京地区上市公司为例”(项目编号:22GJB010、SZ202310038016);首都经济贸易大学北京市属高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目“国际资本流动冲击研究创新团队”(项目编号:QNTD202206)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：本文通过构建中国企业遭遇东道国反倾销制裁时的行为选择模型探究反倾销壁垒对企业跨国并购成功率的影响,并利用2000—2020年BvD-Zephyr全球并购交易数据库和世界银行临时性贸易壁垒数据库的匹配数据进行实证检验。研究发现,东道国的反倾销措施在整体上会降低中国企业的跨国并购成功率,尤其是当东道国制度质量较差、与中国文化距离及地理距离较远、非“一带一路”沿线国家、不承认中国“市场经济地位”时,反倾销制裁对并购成功率的抑制作用更为明显。机制分析表明,反倾销制裁可以通过降低企业的贸易竞争力进而抑制并购成功率。进一步考察发现,反倾销制裁的“跟风效应”对跨国并购成功率存在着明显的跨国和跨行业负向溢出作用,东道国反倾销制裁网络中心性的提升会对企业跨国并购成功率产生负面影响,同时双边政治关系的改善能够缓解反倾销制裁的负面影响,在一定程度上提高跨国并购成功率。By constructing a theoretical model of Chinese companies'behavioral choices when they encounter anti-dumping sanctions in host countries,this paper explores the impact of antidumping barriers on the success rate of cross-border M&A and empirically examines it by using 121matched data from the BvD-Zephyr Database and the World Bank Temporary Trade Barriers Database for the period 2000—2020.This paper finds that anti-dumping measures in host countries overall reduce the success rate of cross-border M&A by Chinese companies.In particular,when the host country has poor institutional quality,is culturally and geographically distant from China,is not a country along the Belt and Road initiative,and does not recognize China's market economy status,the inhibitory effect is more obvious.The mechanism analysis shows that antidumping sanctions inhibit the success rate of cross-border M&A by reducing the trade competitiveness of Chinese companies.Further investigation reveals that the bandwagon effect of antidumping sanctions has significantly cross-border and cross-industry negative spillovers on the success rate of cross-border M&A,and that the increase in the centrality of the host country's antidumping sanction network negatively affects the success rate of cross-border M&A.Meanwhile,the enhancement of bilateral political relations can alleviate the negative impact of anti-dumping sanctions and promote the success rate of cross-border M&A.

关 键 词：反倾销 跨国并购 溢出效应 双边政治关系 

分 类 号：F272.3[经济管理—企业管理]