1990-2019年江苏省启东市居民恶性肿瘤死亡率趋势分析及去死因期望寿命预测  

Trends of Cancer Mortality from 1990 to 2019 and Prediction of Cause-Eliminated Life Expectancy Among Residents in Qidong,Jiangsu

作　　者：徐源佑 张永辉[1] 丁璐璐[1] 陈永胜[1] 王军 陈建国[1] 唐红萍 朱健[1] XU Yuanyou;ZHANG Yonghui;DING Lulu;CHEN Yongsheng;WANG Jun;CHEN Jianguo;TANG Hongping;ZHU Jian(Qidong Liver Cancer Institute/Qidong People's Hospital/Qidong Hospital Affiliated to Nantong University,Qidong 226200,China)

机构地区：[1]启东肝癌防治研究所/启东市人民医院/南通大学附属启东医院,江苏启东226200

出　　处：《中国肿瘤》2023年第8期589-595,共7页China Cancer

基　　金：南通市卫生健康委员会2020年科研立项课题(QB2020025)。

摘　　要：[目的]分析1990—2019年江苏省启东市居民恶性肿瘤死亡率的变化趋势和期望寿命情况。[方法]根据1990—2019年启东市全死因监测资料及历年人口资料,对居民恶性肿瘤死亡率及时间趋势进行分析。采用Joinpoint 4.7.0.0软件,计算粗死亡率(crude mortality rate,CMR)、中国人口标化死亡率(age-standardized mortality rate by Chinese standard population,ASMRC)、年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC)以及平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change,AAPC)等指标,并计算各年期望寿命。使用SAS 9.2对2020—2024年期望寿命进行预测。[结果]1990—2019年启东市居民恶性肿瘤的CMR为223.46/10万,其中男性为294.87/10万,女性为153.89/10万。ASMRC为128.19/10万,其中男性为170.53/10万,女性为86.39/10万。趋势分析显示,CMR的AAPC为1.98%,其中男性为1.81%,女性为2.50%,ASMRC的AAPC为-1.10%,其中男性为-1.45%,女性为-0.59%。启东市居民期望寿命从1990年的73.95岁上升至2019年的82.91岁(AAPC=0.38%,P<0.001),去恶性肿瘤期望寿命由1990年的77.46岁上升至2019年的87.00岁(AAPC=0.40%,P<0.001),恶性肿瘤带来的寿命损失逐年上升。预测模型显示,在2020—2024年间期望寿命逐年升高,恶性肿瘤带来的寿命损失也随之升高。[结论] 30年来启东市居民恶性肿瘤CMR逐年上升,ASMRC则呈现下降趋势,但恶性肿瘤带来的寿命损失负担仍然较重;从趋势分析及预测结果看,男性的恶性肿瘤死亡率和寿命损失均高于女性,应给予更多干预措施。[Purpose] To analyse the trends of cancer mortality from 1990 to 2019 in Qidong City of Jiangsu Province. [Methods] The data of all-cause deaths from 1990 to 2019 and the population data in Qidong City were collected. The crude mortality rate(CMR), age-standardized mortality rate by Chinese standard population(ASMRC) were calculated, the annual percentage change(APC) and average annual percentage change(AAPC) of mortality rate were analyzed by Joinpoint 4.7.0.0 software, and the cause-eliminated-life-expectancy was predicted by SAS 9.2. [Results] From 1990to 2019, the CMR of all cancers of residents in Qidong City was 223.46/10~5, 294.87/10~5 for males and 153.89/10~5 for females, respectivoly. The ASMRC was 128.19/10~5, 170.53/10~5 for males and86.39/10~5for females, respectively. The trend analysis showed that the AAPC of CMR was1.98%, 1.81% for males and 2.50% for females, respectively, and the AAPC of ASMRC was-1.10%,-1.45% for males and-0.59% for females, respectively, and overall and male downward trend was statistically significant. The life expectancy of residents in Qidong City increased from 73.95years old in 1990 to 82.91 years old in 2019(AAPC=0.38%, P<0.001), and the cancer-eliminatedlife expectancy was increased from 77.46 years old in 1990 to 87.00 years old in 2019(AAPC=0.40%, P<0.001), and the life loss caused by cancers increased year by year. Predictive models show that life expectancy will increase over the next 5 years, and life loss from malignant tumors will also increase. [Conclusion] In the past 30 years, CMR of cancers in Qidong has been increasing, while ASMRC shows a downward trend, but the burden of life loss caused by cancers is still heavy. According to the trend analysis and prediction results, the mortality rate and life loss of cancers are higher in male than those in female, so more intervention measures should be given to male.

关 键 词：恶性肿瘤 死亡率 期望寿命 趋势分析 江苏 

分 类 号：R73-31[医药卫生—肿瘤]