市场情绪能否影响家庭购房意愿和购房行为?——基于中国家庭金融调查数据的实证研究  

Can Market Sentiment Affect Family House Purchase Intention and Behavior?An Empirical Study Based on China Household Finance Survey

作　　者：程建华[1] 夏梦琪 CHENG Jianhua;XIA Mengqi(School of Big Data and Statistics,Anhui University,Hefei 230039,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽大学大数据与统计学院,安徽合肥230039

出　　处：《合肥工业大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第5期60-72,共13页Journal of Hefei University of Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：安徽省哲学社会科学规划一般项目(AHSKF2019D019)。

摘　　要：通过对2017年和2019年中国经济新闻数据库发布的房地产新闻标题以及微博平台发布的房地产相关评论进行文本情感分析,构建专属情感词典,获得各省区市相应市场情绪指数,然后基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2017年和2019年的公开数据,实证分析市场情绪对于家庭购房意愿和购房行为的影响。结果显示:市场情绪对于家庭购房意愿有显著的正向影响,高涨的市场情绪可以刺激家庭的购房意愿;市场情绪对于不同购房者行为的影响存在差异,其中市场情绪对于首次购房的影响不显著,但却显著影响二次购房行为;市场情绪会改变家庭对于金融资产的投资选择,进而影响家庭的购房意愿以及行为;市场情绪对家庭购房意愿和行为的影响呈现区域异质性,相比于中西部,东部更易受到市场情绪的影响。Through text sentiment analysis of the real estate news headlines released by the China Economic News Database and the real estate related comments released by the Weibo platform in 2017 and 2019,an exclusive sentiment dictionary was constructed,and the market sentiment indices of different provinces,autonomous regions,municipalities in China were obtained,and based on the public data of China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)in 2017 and 2019,the impact of market sentiment on family house purchase intention and behavior was empirically analyzed.The results show that market sentiment has a significant positive impact on the willingness of families to buy houses,and the rising market sentiment can stimulate the willingness of families to buy houses;there are differences in the influence of market sentiment on the behavior of different house buyers.Among them,the influence of market sentiment on the first purchase is not significant,but it significantly affects the behavior of second purchase;market sentiment will change the family’s investment choice for financial assets,and then affect the family’s willingness and behavior to buy houses;the impact of market sentiment on family house purchase intention and behavior shows regional heterogeneity,and compared with the central and western regions,the eastern region is more vulnerable to the impact of market sentiment.

关 键 词：情感词典 市场情绪指数 购房意愿 购房行为 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]