基于GIS的北京市延庆区森林火灾蔓延风险  

Forest Fire Spread Risk in Yanqing District of Beijing Based on GIS

作　　者：王博[1] 杨雪清 蒋春颖 刘冬 陈锋[1] 白夜[1] 刘晓东[1] Wang Bo;Yang Xueqing;Jiang Chunying;Liu Dong;Chen Feng;Bai Ye;Liu Xiaodong(Key Laboratory of Forest and Grassland Fire Risk Prevention Ministry of Emergency Management School of Ecology and Nature Conservation,Beijing Forestry University,Beijing 100083;Academy of Forestry and Grassland Inventory and Planning,National Forestry and Grassland Administration,Beijing 100013;Yanqing District Forestry and Parks Monitoring Center of Beijing Municipality,Beijing 102100)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学生态与自然保护学院、森林草原火灾风险防控应急管理部重点实验室,北京100083 [2]国家林业和草原局林草调查规划院,北京100013 [3]北京市延庆区园林绿化监测中心,北京102100

出　　处：《林业科学》2023年第8期90-101,共12页Scientia Silvae Sinicae

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2020YFC1511601)。

摘　　要：【目的】建立森林火灾蔓延风险评估框架(包括发生危险、蔓延危险、蔓延风险3部分),基于GIS开展北京市延庆区多尺度(小班、村屯、乡镇)森林火灾蔓延风险评估,为延庆区林火管理提供依据,最大限度降低林火发生危险和林火蔓延造成的损失。【方法】基于延庆区2019年森林资源二类调查小班数据、森林可燃物数据、人口数据、30 m分辨率数字高程数据、气象数据,从野外火源管理难度和着火难易程度2个方面构建森林火灾发生危险评估指标体系,从森林可燃物、气象因子、地形因子、火行为4个方面构建森林火灾蔓延危险评估指标体系,应用层次分析法和熵权法相结合的主客观赋权法确定指标权重,利用加权综合评价法和面积加权平均法计算多尺度发生危险和蔓延危险指数,根据自然断点分级法划分等级。基于“危险性-暴露度-脆弱性”风险评估框架,从破坏森林资源和威胁生命安全2个方面评估森林火灾蔓延风险。【结果】1)野外火源管理难度的综合权重达到0.7713,是影响森林火灾发生危险的主要因素;火行为的综合权重达到0.4032,是影响森林火灾蔓延危险的主要因素。2)延庆区森林火灾发生危险从平原向山区逐步减小,高发生危险区域在小班、村屯、乡镇尺度上分别占比0.89%、0.52%、7.48%,主要分布在城区周围的平原区域;蔓延危险从平原向山区逐步增大,高蔓延危险区域在小班、村屯、乡镇尺度上分别占比46.19%、58.73%、35.67%,主要分布在西部2个林场(八达岭林场、松山林场)和东部2个山区乡镇(千家店镇、珍珠泉乡)。3)延庆区森林火灾蔓延风险(森林资源)在小班、村屯、乡镇尺度上均无极高风险区域,中高风险区域在小班、村屯、乡镇尺度上分别占比0.80%、2.85%、1.79%;蔓延风险(人口)在村屯和乡镇尺度上均无极高和中高风险区域,小班尺度上无极高风险区域,�【Objective】In this study,an assessment framework for forest fire spread risk(including occurrence hazard,spread hazard,and spread risk)was established,to carry out multi-scale(subcompartment,village,township)forest fire spread risk assessment in Yanqing District of Beijing based on GIS technology.The study aims to provide a basis for forest fire management in Yanqing District,which could minimize the occurrence hazard of forest fire and the loss caused by the spread of forest fire.【Method】Based on the subcompartment data of the 2019 forest resources second-class survey,forest fuel data,population data,30-meter resolution digital elevation data and meteorological data,the forest fire occurrence hazard assessment index system was constructed from two aspects:difficulty in wildfire sources management and ease degree of ignition.The forest fire spread hazard assessment index system was constructed from four aspects of forest fuel,meteorological factor,topographic factor and fire behavior.The subjective and objective weighting method of AHP and entropy weight method were used to determine the index weight,and the weighted comprehensive evaluation method and the area weighted average method were used to calculate the multiscale occurrence hazard and spread hazard index.According to the natural break point classification method,the grade is divided.Based on the risk assessment framework of“hazard-exposure-vulnerability”,the forest fire spread risk was evaluated from two aspects of destroying forest resources and threatening life safety.【Result】1)The comprehensive weight of difficulty in wildfire sources management reached 0.7713,which was the main factor affecting the forest fire occurrence hazard.The comprehensive weight of fire behavior was 0.4032,which was the main factor affecting the forest fire spread hazard.2)The forest fire occurrence hazard in Yanqing district gradually decreased from plain to mountainous area,and the high occurrence hazard areas accounted for 0.89%,0.52%and 7.48%in subcompartme

关 键 词：延庆区 森林火灾 蔓延风险 多尺度 地理信息系统 

分 类 号：S762.1[农业科学—森林保护学]