县城抗涝韧性的定量评价与时空演化研究——以江苏省为例  

Quantitative Evaluation and Spatial-temporal Evolution of County-level Flood Resilience:A Case Study of Jiangsu Province

作　　者：李德智[1] 聂骁 朱诗尧 周圣华[1] LI Dezhi;NIE Xiao;ZHU Shiyao;ZHOU Shenghua(China Pakistan Belt and Road Joint Laboratory on Smart Disaster Prevention of Major Infrastructures,Southeast University,Nanjing 211189,China;School of Transportation and Civil Engineering,Nantong University,Nantong 226001,China)

机构地区：[1]东南大学中国—巴基斯坦重大基础设施智慧防灾“一带一路”联合实验室,江苏南京211189 [2]南通大学交通与土木工程学院,南通江苏226001

出　　处：《灾害学》2023年第4期99-106,共8页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(19BGL281)。

摘　　要：从社会、经济、环境和基础设施四个维度遴选21个指标,构建县城抗涝韧性评价指标体系,进而运用熵权TOPSIS法构建县城抗涝韧性评价模型。通过OAT法对指标权重进行敏感性分析,确定指标权重的合理性。进一步地,定量评价2009—2020年江苏省41个县城的抗涝韧性水平并分析其时空变化特征和障碍因子。结果表明:①江苏省县城抗涝韧性表现出明显的增长趋势;②江苏省县城抗涝韧性呈现“南强北弱”的空间分布格局;③江苏省县城抗涝韧性具有显著的空间集聚性,其中热点地区集聚在苏南地区,冷点地区出现在苏北地区,并且冷点地区在研究期内呈现“沿海—内陆—沿海”的变化特征。A county-level flood resilience(CFS)evaluation model is developed based on 21 indicators selected according to four dimensions of society,economy,environment,and infrastructure.The flood resilience of 41 counties in Jiangsu Province from 2009 to 2020 was quantitatively evaluated,and the CFS dynamic evolution was analyzed.The results reveal that:①the CFS in Jiangsu Province increases substantially as a whole;②the CFS shows a spatial distribution pattern of“strong in the south and weak in the north”,and③it has a significant spatial agglomeration.The cold spots clustered in the northern part of Jiangsu Province,showing a“coastland-inland-coastland”alteration during the study period.Then,on the basis of analyzing the spatial distribution differences and obstacle factors of the CFS in Jiangsu Province,this paper puts forward four strategies were put forward to improve the CFS in Jiangsu Province,such as stimulating economic vitality through diversified development.

关 键 词：县城 抗涝韧性 定量评价 时空演化 江苏省 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5[建筑科学—市政工程] TU998.4