基于情景分析的村落尺度能源碳排放效应研究  

Energy carbon emission effect at the village scale based on scenario analysis

作　　者：李宏庆 徐月萍 汪杨 任婉侠[2] 薛冰[2,3] LI Hongqing;XU Yueping;WANG Yang;REN Wanxia;XUE Bing(Technical University of Berlin,Department of Circular Economy and Recycling Technology,Berlin 10623,Germany;Institute of Applied Ecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shenyang 110016,China;Weifang Academy of Modern Agriculture and Ecological Environment,Weifang 261071,China)

机构地区：[1]柏林工业大学循环经济与回收技术系,柏林10623德国 [2]中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所,沈阳110016 [3]潍坊现代农业与生态环境研究院,山东潍坊261071

出　　处：《农业资源与环境学报》2023年第5期1199-1207,共9页Journal of Agricultural Resources and Environment

基　　金：山东省人才计划项目(tsqn202103159);潍坊市科技计划项目(2021ZJ1132);中国科学院区域发展青年学者项目(2021-003)。

摘　　要：村落尺度的低碳建设不仅可以提高村落的能源供给水平,充分挖掘农村资源的潜力,同时在促进绿色乡村的建设方面具有重要作用。本研究以河南省邑西里村为例,通过构建碳能源体系框架,研究不同情景下的碳排放水平,进而判断村落在低碳能源体系建设中的功能角色。结果表明:全村2020年的能源消费热值为5925 GJ,全村的碳排放量为877 t;在基准情景、慢速发展情景和快速发展情景下2030年消费量分别为6228、6594、6955 GJ,其碳排放量分别为928、987 t和1046 t;若能实现对太阳能等资源的综合利用,2030年总能源消耗自给率分别为50.76%、52.30%和53.72%。对比不同情景下能源使用的碳排放量,尽管能源种类逐渐向清洁能源的方向转型,但是全村的碳排放量还是呈现出逐渐上升的趋势。因此,如何保证在居民的能源消费结构升级及转型的前提下优化能源结构并提高村落的低碳水平,仍是在未来一段时间内亟需解决的问题。Research of low-carbon building methods at the village scale can enhance the village energy supply,contribute to full utilization of rural resources,and also play an important role in promoting the construction of green villages.In this study,we took the village of Yixili in Henan Province as an example and explored the carbon source and sink levels of each element in the village by designing three development scenarios.Then,we determined the role and function of the village in the construction of a low-carbon energy system.The results showed that the calorific value of energy consumption of the village in 2020 was 5925 GJ and that the consumption in 2030 under baseline,conservative,and aggressive scenarios will be 6228,6594 GJ,and 6955 GJ,respectively.The carbon emissions of the village in 2020 were 877 t,and the future carbon emissions under the baseline,conservative,and aggressive scenarios are 928,987 t,and 1046 t.If comprehensive utilization of solar energy and other resources can be realized,the total energy consumption self-sufficiency rates for 2030 are 50.76%,52.30%,and 53.72%,respectively.A comparison of the carbon emissions from energy use under the different scenarios revealed that the carbon emissions of the whole village gradually attain an increasing trend,despite the gradual transition to clean energy types.Therefore,the problem of how to ensure optimization of the energy structure and improve the low carbon level of the village under the premise of upgrading and transitioning the energy consumption structure of the residents still needs to be addressed in the coming period.

关 键 词：人地关系 乡村地域系统 低碳 能源碳排放 情景分析 村落 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]