安徽省区域物流圈生态环境承载力评价研究  

Evaluation on the Eco-environmental Carrying Capacity of Regional Logistics Circle in Anhui Province

作　　者：郑志伟 何刚[1] ZHENG Zhiwei;HE Gang(School of Economics and Management,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huai'nan,Anhui,232001,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学经济与管理学院,安徽淮南232001

出　　处：《西安石油大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第5期11-17,共7页Journal of Xi’an Shiyou University:Social Science Edition

基　　金：教育部人文社科规划基金“淮河流域生态补偿优先级评估、额度测算及跨域实现机制研究”(22YJAZH025);安徽理工大学研究生创新基金项目“淮河流域低碳经济发展协同效应研究”(2022CX2151)。

摘　　要：以安徽省为研究区域,从环境、物流和社会3个维度构建生态环境评价指标体系,通过对2011—2021年安徽省生态环境承载力评价分析并引入BP神经网络模型进行预测,结合Argis软件进行空间差异分析。结果显示:安徽省生态环境承载力综合指数表现出增长趋势,子系统均处于增长状态,但各子系统指数增长幅度差异明显。物流系统指数增长幅度明显,社会系统指数变化幅度次之,环境系统变化幅度较小。评价状态方面:物流、社会子系统都达到成长区阶段,环境系统处在弱载区。区域的非均衡特征明显,皖中地区高于皖南和皖北,皖北城市上升明显,皖南城市长期处于弱载状态。Taking Anhui Province as the research area,the ecological environment evaluation index system is constructed from three dimensions of environment,logistics and society.Through the evaluation and analysis of the ecological environment carrying capacity of Anhui Province from 2011 to 2021,the BP neural network model is introduced for prediction,and the spatial difference analysis is carried out with Argis software.The results show that there are obvious spatial and temporal differences in Anhui Province.The comprehensive index of ecological environment carrying capacity shows an increasing trend.The subsystems are in a growth state but the growth rate of each subsystem index is significantly different.Among them,the growth rate of logistics system index is obvious,followed by the change rate of social system index,and then the change rate of environmental system.In terms of evaluation status,logistics and social subsystems have reached the growth zone stage,and the environmental system is in the weak load zone.The non-equilibrium characteristics of the region are obvious.The central Anhui region is higher than the southern and northern Anhui.The cities in northern Anhui have increased significantly,and the cities in southern Anhui have been in a weak load state for a long time.

关 键 词：区域物流圈 BP神经网络 生态环境承载力 评价系统 

分 类 号：F259.27[经济管理—国民经济]