大群体决策视角下风险投资项目选择路径研究  

Research on the Selection Path of Venture Capital Projects from the Viewpoint of Large-scale Group Decision-making

作　　者：宋鹏[1] 张超[2] SONG Peng;ZHANG Chao(School of Economics and Management,Shanxi University,Taiyuan 030006,China;School of Computer and Information Technology,Shanxi University,Taiyuan 030006,China)

机构地区：[1]山西大学经济与管理学院,山西太原030006 [2]山西大学计算机与信息技术学院,山西太原030006

出　　处：《山西大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2023年第5期143-151,共9页Journal of Shanxi University(Philosophy and Social Science Edition)

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“基于多粒度的多属性复杂大群体决策方法研究”(18YJA630095);国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于多粒度的多准则推荐系统研究”(72171137)。

摘　　要：风险投资是为支持初创企业而专门投入的权益资本,在企业发展成长后通过资本退出来实现资本增值。作为风险投资领域的核心问题,风险投资项目选择对于国家高新技术产业发展具有重要意义。然而,当前风险投资项目选择中,伴随风险决策成员规模的日益增大,风险投资项目呈现大群体特征。同时,由于风险投资项目评价中的不确定性和复杂性,风险投资项目选择决策也表现出了多准则混合模糊特征。因此,面向风险投资项目选择的复杂性挑战,在大群体决策视角下设计合理的风险投资项目选择路径具有重要的现实应用价值。研究发现,通过建立基于离差最大化法的权重获取机制,引入模糊聚类法对大群体风险投资项目选择问题进行关键成员筛选,设计融入最小贝叶斯风险决策的成员有限理性集成机制,可有效构建大群体决策视角下风险投资项目的科学选择路径。案例分析结果表明,上述模型对于应对决策成员规模增长与多准则混合模糊特征带来的挑战具有重要的理论意义,有助于在复杂不确定环境下降低决策过程的整体风险,缓解因成员差异引致的风险投资项目选择差异,进而提供风险投资项目高效选择的有效路径。Venture capital endeavors to assist startups through deliberate investments of equity capital,so as to attain capital gains by withdrawing the capital after the initial growth period of the enterprise.In the realm of venture capital,the process of selecting projects to invest in is a critical matter and has a considerable impact on the advancement of national high-tech industries.However,in the current selection of venture capital projects,due to the expansion of the scale of participants involved in risky decision-making,these projects now present the feature of large groups.Meanwhile,the evaluation of venture capital projects is fraught with various uncertainties and complexities,leading to the emergence of multi-criteria hybrid fuzzy features in the selection decision of these projects.Therefore,given the challenges inherent in the selection of venture capital projects,it is of significant realistic application value to design a valid selection path for such projects from a large-scale group decision-making perspective.The results reveal that a selection path of venture capital projects from the viewpoint of large-scale group decision-making can be established through the following steps,i.e.,developing weight determination schemes based on the maximum deviation method,conducting key member selections for large-scale venture capital project selections by introducing fuzzy clustering methods,and designing bounded rationality aggregation schemes for members by introducing the minimum risk Bayesian decision.The results of case analysis show that the model presented above has significant theoretical implications for addressing the challenges posed by member scales and multi-criteria hybrid fuzzy features.It is conducive to reducing overall risks in complex and uncertain environments,alleviating the differences caused by different members in the selection of venture capital projects,and ultimately providing an efficient selection path for such projects.

关 键 词：风险投资项目选择 大群体 多准则混合模糊 风险决策 

分 类 号：F830.59[经济管理—金融学] C934[经济管理—管理学]