全球数字产品贸易依赖网络的演化机制及影响因素研究  

The Evolution Mechanisms and Influencing Factors of International Trade Dependence Network on Digital Products

作　　者：李清如[1] 王冰雪 Li Qingru;Wang Bingxue

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院日本研究所,北京100007 [2]中国社会科学院大学国际政治经济学院,北京102488

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2023年第10期151-169,共19页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

摘　　要：基于2007—2021年联合国商品贸易统计数据库的数字产品贸易数据,构建全球数字产品贸易依赖网络,从“整体—社群—个体”三个层面系统分析网络的结构特征,并基于时间指数随机图模型(TERGM)对全球数字产品贸易依赖网络演化的内部和外部机制进行动态分析。结果表明,全球数字贸易依赖网络呈现明显的“中心-边缘”分布结构,经济体间的数字产品贸易依赖程度逐渐加深;全球数字产品贸易依赖网络主要形成由中国和美国共同领导的亚太贸易社团和以德国和荷兰为中心的欧洲贸易社团;中国在网络中的中心度总体呈现上升趋势,在数字产品贸易依赖网络中扮演着愈发重要的枢纽性角色;全球数字产品贸易依赖网络的形成和演化受到相互依赖效应、聚集效应、感染效应与时间依赖效应等内生机制的影响,经济规模等外生因素也显著影响数字产品贸易依赖网络的形成,因此,有必要综合考虑内生机制和外生机制的作用。Based on digital product trade data of UN Comtrade from 2007 to 2021,this paper con-structs a digital product trade dependence network and systemically analyzes the structural characteristics and evolution mechanisms of the network from entirety,community and individual aspects.It also dynami-cally analyzes the internal and external mechanisms affecting the evolution of the digital product trade de-pendence network by Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model.The results show that the network pres-ents a typical"core-periphery"characteristic and the degree of digital product trade dependence among economies shows an upward trend.In addition,"Asia-Pacific trade community"led by China and the U.S.and"European trade community"led by Germany and the Netherlands have become the two most im-portant communities in international trade dependence network on digital products.China's centrality gen-erally shows an upward trend and China plays a more central role in digital product trade dependence net-work.The formation and evolution of international trade dependence network on digital products is affected by endogenous mechanism,such as mutual dependence effect,agglomeration effect,contagion effect and time dependence effect and exogenous factors,such as economic scale.Therefore,it is necessary to com-prehensively consider the role of endogenous and exogenous mechanisms on the formation and evolution of digital product trade dependence network.

关 键 词：数字产品 贸易依赖 复杂网络 时间指数随机图模型 内生机制 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]