未来气候变化对中国马铃薯种植气候适宜性的影响  

Influence of Future Climate Change on the Climate Suitability of Potato Cultivation in China

作　　者：张志良 和志豪 茹晓雅 蒋腾聪 何英彬[3] 冯浩[2,4] 于强 何建强 ZHANG ZhiLiang;HE ZhiHao;RU XiaoYa;JIANG TengCong;HE YingBin;FENG Hao;YU Qiang;HE JianQiang(Northwest A&F University/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas,Ministry of Education,Yangling 712100,Shaanxi;Institute of Water-Saving Agriculture in Arid Areas of China,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,Shaanxi;Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081;Institute of Soil and Water Conservation,Chinese Academy of Sciences and Ministry of Water Resource/State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau,Yangling 712100,Shaanxi;Key Laboratory of Eco-Environment and Meteorology,Qinling Mountains and Loess Plateau,Shaanxi Meteorological Bureau,Xi’an 710016)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学/旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室,陕西杨凌712100 [2]西北农林科技大学中国旱区节水农业研究院,陕西杨凌712100 [3]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081 [4]中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所/黄土高原土壤侵蚀与旱地农业国家重点实验室,陕西杨凌712100 [5]陕西省气象局秦岭和黄土高原生态环境气象重点实验室,西安710016

出　　处：《中国农业科学》2023年第18期3530-3542,共13页Scientia Agricultura Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52079115);陕西省重点研发计划重点产业创新链(群)-农业领域项目(2019ZDLNY07-03);高等学校学科创新引智计划(111计划)(B12007);中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所创新工程(2021-2015)。

摘　　要：【目的】马铃薯作为中国第四大主粮作物,其适宜性评价对保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义。本研究基于气候数据,构建集成物种分布模型预测中国未来时期马铃薯气候适宜区,为优化中国马铃薯种植提供重要科学参考。【方法】利用6种全球气候模式(global climate models,GCMs)未来气候数据驱动5种物种分布模型(species distribution models,SDMs),集成模拟预测未来4种温室气体排放情景(ssp126、ssp245、ssp370、ssp585)下,中国历史上(1970—2000年)和4个未来时期(2021—2040、2041—2060、2061—2080、2081—2100年)的马铃薯气候适宜区时空分布特征。【结果】(1)最湿月份的降水量、最暖月份的最高温度,以及最冷季度的平均温度是影响中国马铃薯气候适宜度的主要气象因子,对模拟结果的贡献率分别为54.7%、21.4%和18.1%。(2)4种温室气体排放情景下对于各适宜等级区域的预测结果变化基本一致,都呈现适宜区、低适宜区面积变大而高适宜区面积变小的趋势,仅在海南、西藏、新疆等地局部存在种植气候不适宜区。马铃薯适宜种植区(适宜区和高适宜区)的面积在各种情况下均超过50%。(3)在未来各时期马铃薯种植低适宜区和适宜区面积将大幅增加,而高适宜区面积则呈下降趋势,各适宜等级区域面积总体依旧保持:适宜区>低适宜区>高适宜区。(4)随着温室气体排放等级的提高,中国马铃薯高适宜区将大幅减小。从空间分布上看,中国马铃薯种植高适宜区主要以东北地区、甘肃地区、新疆西部,以及西南部分区域为主;从时间顺序上看,陕西北部、长江中下游区域、内蒙古中西部等区域受未来气候变化影响较大,马铃薯气候适宜度减小趋势明显。【结论】利用构建的集成物种分布模型预测了未来时期中国马铃薯气候适宜区时空分布特征。根据模型模拟结果,建议东北、甘肃、西南等地区可以作为�【Objective】As the fourth staple food crop in China,potato suitability evaluation is of great significance to ensure national food security.Based on climate data,this study constructed an integrated species distribution model to predict the climate suitable area of potato in China in the future,and provided an important scientific reference for optimizing potato planting in China.【Method】In this study,the future climate data derived from six different global climate models(GCMs)were used to drive an ensemble of five different species distribution models(SDMs)to simulate the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of climate suitable areas of potato cultivation in China in the historical(1970-2000)and four future(2021-2040,2041-2060,2061-2080,and 2081-2100)periods under four greenhouse gas emission scenarios(ssp126,ssp245,ssp370,and ssp585).【Result】(1)The precipitation in the wettest month,the highest temperature in the warmest month,and the average temperature in the coldest quarter were the main meteorological factors that affected the climate suitability of potato in China,with their contribution rates of 54.7%,21.4%and 18.1%,respectively.(2)In four scenarios of greenhouse gas emission,the prediction results of various suitable areas were basically the same,showing the similar trends that the areas of suitable and low suitable would become larger,while the area of high suitable would become smaller.Only in Hainan,Tibet,Xinjiang and some other regions,the climate was not suitable for potato planting.The suitable potato planting areas(including both suitable and high suitable)exceed 50%in all cases.(3)In the future,the low suitable and suitable areas for potato planting will increase greatly,while the high suitable areas will decrease.The order of areas of different suitable grades would remain:suitable areas>low suitable areas>high suitable areas.(4)With the increase of greenhouse gas emission level,the high suitable area in China would be greatly reduced.For spatial distribution,the high su

关 键 词：马铃薯 气候变化 全球气候模式 物种分布模型 气候适宜性 

分 类 号：S532[农业科学—作物学]