内卷背景下教育期望对生育行为的影响和机制分析  

Analysis of the Influence and Mechanism of Educational Expectation on Reproductive Behavior in the Involutional Culture

作　　者：边恕[1] 熊禹淇 BIAN Shu;XIONG Yu-qi(School of Public Administration,Liaoning University,Shenyang 110136,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学公共管理学院,辽宁沈阳110136

出　　处：《人口与发展》2023年第5期2-11,共10页Population and Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“中国城乡相对贫困的动态标准制定与多元协同治理研究”(20BSH101)。

摘　　要：当前我国面临生育率持续走低以及生育支持政策效果不明显的问题,亟需寻找解决问题的突破口。基于2020年的中国家庭追踪调查数据(CFPS)研究教育预期对于生育行为的影响及作用机制。研究发现:(1)教育期望水平的提高将显著减少家庭的实际生育子女数以及二孩生育行为;(2)存在户籍、受教育水平和收入水平层面的异质性,在教育预期更高的城市户籍者、能力相对较低的中低学历家长以及更偏好“精致化培养”的高收入样本中教育期望的生育抑制作用更加突出;(3)机制分析表明,教育预期主要通过财富挤出效应和精力占用效应影响生育行为。提出,应进一步降低教育成本,加强教育公平建设,促进生育抚育和就业平衡发展,重塑社会职业价值观以及淡化学历影响,引导家庭依据现实条件设置教育期望等来释放我国生育潜能。With the continuous decline in fertility and the chill of fertility support policies,there is an urgent need to find breakthroughs beyond institutional reform.Based on the 2020 China Family Tracking Survey(CFPS)data,this study investigates the impact and mechanism of edu-cational expectations on reproductive behavior.The study found that:(1)an increase in educa-tional expectations will significantly reduce the actual number of children born and the second child bearing behavior of families;(2)There is heterogeneity at the levels of registered resi-dence,education level and income level,and the inhibitory effect of education expectation on fertility behavior will be more prominent among urban registered residence people with higher education expectations,parents with lower and medium education qualifications with relatively lower ability,and high-income samples who prefer"refined cultivation";(3)Mechanism analysis shows that parents'educational expectations mainly suppress family reproductive behavior through wealth crowding out effects and energy occupancy effects.The article proposes that we should further reduce the cost of education,strengthen the construction of educational equity,promote the balanced development of childbirth and employment,reshape social and professional values,dilute the impact of academic qualifications,and guide families to set educational expectations based on realistic conditions to unleash China's reproductive potential.

关 键 词：教育期望 生育行为 内卷 教育成本 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]