政策不确定性、外资并购与目标企业生产率提升  

Policy Uncertainty,Foreign Capital M&A and Productivity Upgrading of Target Enterprises

作　　者：邵敏[1] 冯冰 Shao Min;Feng Bing(School of Economics,Nankai University,Tianjin 300071,China;School of Econom�ics and Management,Hefei Normal University,Hefei 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,300071 [2]合肥师范学院经济与管理学院,230601

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2023年第7期27-48,共22页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“贸易与地区收入不平等:基于国内市场扭曲下资源空间再配置的研究”(17BJL109)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：本文以政策不确定性作为分析出发点,探讨其对我国外资并购协同效应发挥的制约作用,以及分析该作用的实际大小与重要影响因素。利用世界银行发布的《中国投资环境调查》数据,并结合奈特对“不确定性”的定义,本文构建了城市层面的政策不确定性指标(当企业认为不稳定的政策对其运营造成了“低等及以上”程度的妨碍时,即可认为该城市存在政策不确定性),将其纳入1998—2007年中国工业企业数据库,运用多期双重差分模型进行研究发现,政策不确定性并不影响外资并购的发生率,但会显著抑制其协同效应的发挥,使得外资并购的生产率提升效应趋于不显著,而没有引发不确定性的(即适度的)政策调整将通过促进外资并购提升目标企业的生产率。考虑到市场力量对企业经营决策和城市政策实施的共同有力影响,本文进一步研究发现,适度的政策调整应与市场化相结合,才能促进外资并购的生产率提升效应的发挥。The purpose of this paper is to examine empirically the restrictive effect of policy uncertainty on foreign capital M&A,as well as the actual size and important influencing factors of this effect.Based on the data of China investment environment survey by the World Bank and the definition of uncertainty in Knight(1921),this paper constructs an index of policy uncertainty at the city level(when an enterprise believes that unstable policies have caused"low or above"obstacles to its operation,it can be concluded that there is policy uncertainty in the city).In addition to the index of policy uncertainty,we include the database of Chinese industrial enterprises from 1998 to 2007.By applying the multi-period double difference model and the seemingly unrelated regression model,it’s found that the policy uncertainty does not affect the probability of the occurrence of foreign capital M&A,but will significantly inhibit the exertion of its synergistic effect,making the productivity upgrading effect of foreign capital M&A tend to be insignificant,while policy adjustment without causing uncertainty(i.e.moderate)will promote foreign capital M&A and improve the productivity of target enterprises.Furthermore,this paper constructs an index to measure the incomplete information of enterprises in government policies at the city level.It is found that aiming at promoting the productivity upgrading effect of foreign capital M&A,moderate policy adjustment should be combined with marketization,policy publicity and policy interpretation guidance for foreign-funded enterprise.

关 键 词：政策不确定性 信息不完全 外资并购 生产率 

分 类 号：F271[经济管理—企业管理] F425[经济管理—国民经济]