基于碳回收期理论的城市轨道交通碳减排效应测算  

Calculation for Carbon Emission Reduction Effect of Urban Rail Transit Based on Carbon Recovery Period Theory

作　　者：杨洋 王雪纯[3] 袁振洲 陈进杰[4] 那艳玲 YANG Yang;WANG Xue-chun;YUAN Zhen-zhou;CHEN Jin-jie;NAYan-ling(School of Transportation Science and Engineering,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China;Beijing Key Laboratory for Cooperative Vehicle Infrastructure Systems and Safety Control,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China;School of Traffic and Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China;School of Traffic and Transportation,Shijiazhuang Tiedao University,Shijiazhuang 050043,China;China Railway Design Corporation,Tianjin 300308,China)

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学交通科学与工程学院,北京100191 [2]北京航空航天大学车路协同与安全控制北京市重点实验室,北京100191 [3]北京交通大学,交通运输学院,北京100044 [4]石家庄铁道大学,交通运输学院,石家庄050043 [5]中国铁路设计集团有限公司,天津300308

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2023年第5期1-11,23,共12页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：城市轨道交通数字化建设与测评技术国家工程研究中心开放课题基金资助(2023HJ01);北京市自然科学基金(J210001);中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司科研项目(2022YJ039)。

摘　　要：合理量化城市轨道交通的碳减排效应,对于测算城市轨道交通外部成本、丰富交通运输领域碳交易理论体系乃至制定城市轨道交通补贴政策都具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文考虑了城市轨道交通建成后乘客出行行为的差异性,建立生命周期视角下的城市轨道交通基准线碳排放模型与项目活动碳排放模型;进而,构建碳回收期理论模型,作为城市轨道交通碳减排效应量化指标,碳回收期指通过运营期碳减排回收建设期碳排放的周期,即累计碳足迹首次由正值转向负值的时间;而后,实现城市轨道交通在基准线、项目建设及活动期的数据收集,同时,标定模型;最后,以石家庄3号线为例进行情景分析,测算其基准线碳排放量、项目建设期及项目活动期的碳排放量,并在未来发展的两大模式下测算碳回收期。结果显示,在客流量常态化增长情景、快速增长情景以及缓慢增长情景下,其碳回收期分别为27,22,29年;在能源结构和能效水平常态发展、迅速发展以及缓步发展的情景下,其碳回收期分别为25,24,29年。结论表明,大规模客运量和高效的客运强度是城市轨道交通碳减排正效应的重要支撑;能源结构调整和能效水平提升带来的系统性变革,可以对城市轨道交通碳减排带来显著正效应。Reasonable quantification of the carbon emission reduction effect of urban rail transit has theoretical and practical significance to calculate the external cost of urban rail transit,enrich the theoretical system of carbon trading in the field of transportation,and even formulate subsidy policies for urban rail transit.This paper considered the passengers'travel behavior difference after the construction of urban rail transit,and established the carbon emission model of urban rail transit datum line and project activity from the perspective of life cycle.Furthermore,a theoretical model of carbon recovery period was established as a quantitative indicator of carbon emission reduction effect of urban rail transit.Carbon recovery period refers to the duration of carbon emission recovery toward the construction period through carbon emission reduction during the operation period,which is the time when the cumulative carbon footprint changes from positive to negative for the first time.Then,the urban rail transit data collection was completed in the datum line,project construction and activity period,and the model is calibrated.The Shijiazhuang Subway Line 3 was taken as a case study,the carbon emissions of its datum line,the project construction period and the project activity period were analyzed,and the carbon recovery period was calculated under the two models of future development.The results show that the carbon recovery period is respectively 27 years,22 years and 29 years under normal,rapid,and slow growth scenarios.Under the scenario of normal development of energy structure and energy efficiency level,rapid development and slow development,the carbon recovery period is respectively 25 years,24 years and 29 years.The conclusions indicate that large-scale passenger volume and efficient passenger transportation intensity are important elements for the positive impact of carbon emission reduction in urban rail transit.The systematic changes brought about by the adjustment of energy structure and the energy effi

关 键 词：城市交通 碳减排效应 碳回收期理论 城市轨道交通 生命周期 情景分析 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程]