考虑共享汽车和区域换乘的多模式双动态演化模型  

A Doubly Dynamical Model of Multimodal Transportation Systems Considering Regional Transfer and Car-sharing Mode

作　　者：周成栋 宋菲 赵小梅[1] ZHOU Cheng-dong;SONG Fei;ZHAO Xiao-mei(School of Systems Science,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学,系统科学学院,北京100044

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2023年第5期146-154,共9页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72288101)。

摘　　要：构建多模式交通系统的双动态演化模型,模型包括逐日动态演化和日内动态演化,逐日动态演化在1 d的维度上不断更新用户的多模式感知出行成本;日内动态演化依据多模式感知出行成本,采用Logit模型划分模式,并通过宏观基本图(Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram,MFD)理论计算区域内各模式的平均行驶车速和出行时长。探究共享汽车新型交通模式和区域换乘对出行者选择行为和交通系统演化均衡的影响。算例结果表明:相比长途出行,出行者在短途出行中更愿意使用共享汽车;稳态系统中,共享汽车出行将代替28.09%的私家车出行和8.52%的公共汽车出行;共享汽车出行增加了交通系统的总出行成本(1.07%)和总旅行时间(16.53%);区域换乘是重要的出行模式,降低了交通系统的总出行成本、总旅行时间和小汽车的拥有量。In this paper,a doubly dynamical model is constructed in a multi-modal transportation system,including the day-to-day traffic dynamics and the within-day traffic dynamics.The day-to-day traffic dynamics update travelers'perceived travel costs of different modes over the days.According to travelers'perceived travel costs of different modes,the within-day traffic dynamics use the Logit model to split travel demand.Further,the macroscopic fundamental diagram(MFD)is adopted to calculate regional average travel speed and travel time.The effects of carsharing and regional transfer on the time-dependent choices of travelers and the evolution of traffic conditions are investigated extensively.The results show that travelers are more likely to use car-sharing for short trips than for long trips.In the stabilization phase,car-sharing can replace 28.09%of private car trips and 8.52%of public bus trips and increase the total social cost(1.07%)and total travel time(16.53%)of the transportation system.Regional transfer is an important travel mode that reduces the total social cost,total travel time,and private car ownership in the transportation system.

关 键 词：城市交通 模式选择 双动态演化 多模式交通系统 区域组合换乘 共享汽车 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程]