海河流域水环境安全评价及动态耦合协调度分析  

Evaluation of Water Environmental Security in the Hai he River Basin and Analysis of Dynamic Coupling Coordination

作　　者：秦明慧 刘秀丽[1,2,3] QIN Minghui;LIU Xiuli(Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Center for Forecasting Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院预测科学研究中心,北京100190 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2023年第10期63-73,共11页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：国家社会科学基金专项项目(E31Z060101);国家自然科学基金项目(71874184)。

摘　　要：【目的】对海河流域水环境安全状况和耦合协调发展态势做出客观全面的综合评价并辨析影响流域水环境安全的关键因素,为后续流域水环境管理与保护工作提供政策参考。【方法】基于压力-状态-响应模型框架,综合考虑生物多样性、非常规水源供水比例等常被忽略的指标,构建更加全面系统的水环境安全评价指标体系;构建基于EWM-PCA组合权重的模糊综合评价模型对水环境安全状况进行评价;通过建立三元动态耦合协调度模型,评价分析了压力、状态、响应子系统的动态耦合发展状态,并进行了协调度的量化计算;结合指标贡献率和指标弹性辨识出影响水环境安全的关键因素。【结果】①2009—2020年间海河流域水环境安全等级由较危险转变为较安全,同时经历了从初级耦合向高级耦合的转变,协调发展水平先降后升,偏离协调度由22.8°最高增至24.0°,2020年下降至17.3°。②各一级指标安全度有不同程度提高,其中状态指标改善最为显著,但仍处于较危险等级。③各二级指标对水环境安全的影响不一,其中人口密度增加和城镇化进程对海河流域水环境安全的破坏作用最强;氨氮、总磷的超标截面比在这一阶段大幅降低;Ⅰ-Ⅲ类河长占比仍处于较危险水平,具有较大提升潜力;非常规水源供水比例提升等则是海河流域水环境安全的有力保障。【结论】从中长期来看,加强对水体中化学需氧量、五日生化需氧量、高锰酸盐严重超标的治理,大力推行各类非常规水源的开发利用(如促进淡化海水的使用、提高绿地景观的雨水收储能力),维护和提高流域森林覆盖率、物种多样性等将是持续提升海河流域水环境安全度的有效途径。【Objective】The Haihe River plays a pivotal role in supporting various industrial and agricultural sectors in northern China.This paper presents a comprehensive evaluation of its environmental security and coordinated development to identify factors that influence environmental security most.【Method】The analysis was based on the pressure-state-response model,from which we proposed an improved comprehensive and systematic indicator system,including indicators that have been neglected,such as biodiversity and non-conventional water sources.A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to assess the water environmental security,and the entropy weight method and principal component analysis method were used to calculate the weights.A dynamic ternary-coupled coordination degree model was used to analyze the dynamic coupling and quantitatively calculate the coordination of the subsystem of pressure,state,and response.The key factors affecting water environmental security were identified through comprehensive consideration of the contribution rate and elasticity of the indicators.【Result】①From 2009 to 2020,water environmental security in the basin had gradually improved,experiencing a transition from primary-coupling to advanced coupling.During this period,the coordinated development level decreased first followed by an increase.The deviation from the coordination had increased from 22.8°to 24.0°,except in 2020 in which it fell to 17.3°.②The security of primary indicators had increased in all levels,among which the state indicator improved most significantly,despite still in relatively dangerous status.③The secondary indicators had different influences on water environment security,among which the increase in population and urbanization had the most detrimental effect.Ammonia nitrogen and total phosphorus in the basin had been greatly reduced,but water quality in some parts of the basin were still category I-III,with potential to grow further.Increasing the use of non-conventional water sources ca

关 键 词：水环境安全 三元动态耦合协调度 PSR模型 综合评价 海河流域 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]