ARIMA模型在荆州市手足口病疫情预测中的应用  

Application of ARIMA Model in the Prediction of Hand-foot-mouth Disease in Jingzhou City

作　　者：王丽 曹世义[2] 宋开发[1] 黄继贵[1] WANG Li;CAO Shiyi;SONG Kaifa;HUANG Jigui(Jingzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jingzhou,Hubei,434000,China)

机构地区：[1]荆州市疾病预防控制中心,湖北荆州434000 [2]华中科技大学同济医学院,湖北武汉430030

出　　处：《中国社会医学杂志》2023年第5期623-626,共4页Chinese Journal of Social Medicine

摘　　要：目的用ARIMA模型预测荆州市手足口病疫情发病趋势,为荆州市手足口病防控提供依据。方法从中国疾病预防控制信息管理系统收集荆州市手足口病发病资料,用2012—2020年手足口病发病资料建立ARIMA模型,预测2021年手足口病月发病率并用实际发病率进行评估,进一步预测2022年荆州市手足口病发病率。结果荆州市手足口病月发病率模型为ARIMA(2,0,0)(0,1,1)12,Ljung-Box统计量为14.974(P=0.453),平稳R2=0.848,标准化的BIC=2.502。2021年各月实际发病率与预测值基本吻合,实际值均在预测值95%置信区间内,预测值与实际值总体误差为4.74%。利用该模型预测2022年荆州市手足口病发病率为91.45/10万。结论ARIMA(2,0,0)(0,1,1)12模型可以较好地拟合荆州市手足口病月发病率的演变趋势,可用于荆州市手足口病短期发病情况的预测。Objective ARIMA model was used to predict the incidence trend of hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD)in Jingzhou city,providing evidence for the prevention and control of hand-foot-mouth disease in Jingzhou City.Methods The incidence data of HFMD in Jingzhou city were collected from China Disease Prevention and Control Information Management System.The ARIMA model was established using HFMD data from 2012 to 2020.We predicted the monthly incidence of HFMD in 2021 and evaluated it with actual incidence,and then predicted the incidence of HFMD in Jingzhou city in 2022.Results The monthly incidence model of HFMD in Jingzhou city was ARIMA(2,0,0)(0,1,1)12.Statistic of Ljung-Box was 14.974(P=0.453).Stable R 2=0.848.Standardized BIC=2.502.The actual incidence rate for each month in 2021 was consistent with the predicted value.The actual values were all within the 95%confidence interval of the predicted values,and the overall error between the predicted values and the actual values was 4.74%.We predicted that the incidence of HFMD disease in Jingzhou city in 2022 was 91.45/100000 by using the model.Conclusion The ARIMA(2,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model can better fit the evolution trend of HFMD monthly incidence in Jingzhou city,and can be used to predict the short-term incidence situation of HFMD in Jingzhou city.

关 键 词：ARIMA模型 手足口病 预测 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]