广东省耕地资源承载力时空演变及其驱动机理研究  

Spatial-temporal evolution and driving mechanism of cultivated land resources carrying capacity in Guangdong province

作　　者：邹美靓 刘洛[1] 王璐 彭一平 李建华 杨颢 王子锦 ZOU Mei-lang;LU Luo;WANG Li;PENG Yi-ping;LI Jian-hua;YANG Hao;WANG Zi-jin(College of Natural Resources and Environment,South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou 510642,China;School of Public Administration,Hainan University,Haikou 570228,China;South China Academy of Natural Resources Science and Technology,Guang-zhou 510642,China;Guangdong Land Consolidation Rehabilitation Center,Guangzhou 510635,China)

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学资源环境学院,广州510642 [2]海南大学公共管理学院,海口570228 [3]广州市华南自然资源科学技术研究院,广州510642 [4]广东省土地开发整治中心,广州510635

出　　处：《西南农业学报》2023年第8期1573-1583,共11页Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U1901601);国家重点研发计划子课题(2018YFD1100103)。

摘　　要：【目的】研究耕地资源承载力及其内在驱动机理,为国家制定耕地政策与高效管护耕地,维持耕地资源可持续利用、保障粮食安全提供参考依据。【方法】运用泰尔指数、变异系数、重心模型等方法分析二级区、市级和县级尺度下广东省耕地资源承载力的时空分异特征,在此基础上利用地理探测器探寻其空间分异的驱动机理。【结果】(1)2000—2020年,二级区、市级、县级尺度下广东省耕地资源承载力的泰尔指数和变异系数均呈现不断增加的趋势且随空间尺度的降低而加剧,县级尺度的耕地资源承载力失衡最显著。(2)研究期内,广东省整体耕地资源承载力不断下降,县级尺度的变化幅度最大,低值区在珠三角地区形成聚集分布,逐渐形成倒“U”型格局;广东省耕地资源承载力重心呈波浪式不断向西南方向移动。(3)广东省市级尺度的驱动因子作用力整体上大于县级尺度,市级尺度下耕地资源承载力受人均农业生产总值的显著影响,县级尺度下则受人均耕地面积的显著影响;广东省耕地资源承载力整体上受社会经济发展和资源禀赋条件的驱动作用最大。(4)不同尺度下的因子相互作用均表现为双因子增强和非线性增强,因子相互作用呈协同增强的效果,自然立地条件与生产要素投入水平等因素能显著增强两两因子间的相互作用力。【结论】建议提高广东省农业生产收入,平衡粮食供需矛盾,助力农业发展,为乡村生产体系提供技术、金融资本,加大财政支持,推动粮食生产转型,以提高广东省耕地资源承载力、保障耕地资源可持续利用。【Objective】 The study aimed to expiore the carrying capacity of cultivated land resources and its internal driving mechanism,formulate cultivated land policies and efficiently manage and protect cultivated land,maintain the sustainable utilization of cultivated land resources and ensure food security.【Method】Theil index,coefficient of variation,center of gravity model and other methods were used to analyze the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics of cultivated land resources carrying capacity in Guangdong province at the secondary,municipal and county levels.On this basis,the geographical detector was used to explore the driving mechanism of its spatial differentiation.【Result】(i) From 2000 to 2020,the Theil index and coefficient of variation of the carrying capacity of cultivated land resources in Guangdong province at the secondary district,municipal and county scales showed an increasing trend and increased with the decrease of spatial scale,and the imbalance of the carrying capacity of cultivated land resources at the county level was the most significant.(ii) During the study period,the overall carrying capacity of cultivated land resources in Guangdong province continued to decline,with the largest change at the county level.The low-value areas formed an aggregated distribution in the Pearl River Delta region and gradually formed an inverted ‘U' pattern.The gravity center of the carrying capacity of cultivated land resources moved to the southwest in a wave-like manner.(iii) The driving factor force at the municipal scale was generally greater than that of the county scale.The carrying capacity of cultivated land resources at the municipal scale was significantly affected by the per capita gross agricultural product,and at the county scale was significantly affected by the per capita cultivated land area.The carrying capacity of cultivated land resources in Guangdong province was generally driven by social and economic development and resource endowment conditions.(iv) The fact

关 键 词：耕地资源承载力 多尺度 时空演变 地理探测器 驱动机理 

分 类 号：S341.1[农业科学—作物栽培与耕作技术]